The parliamentary calendar points to an end of summer and an autumn of high intensity and uncertainty. The numbers at this time serve to form some majorities in the Congress of Deputies, but there are other unresolved issues that will require political engineering. The first date marked is the constitution of the Cortes, on August 17. It is the starting signal for the legislature because that day the composition of the tables is chosen and the parliamentarians swear or abide by the Constitution.
The focus is the Lower House, where the first agreements to form majorities can be seen. PSOE, Sumar, ERC, EH Bildu, PNV and BNG have the numbers for a socialist candidate to preside over Congress again the next legislature and to control the nine-member table with a majority of five representatives compared to four. If the PP and Vox do not agree, as happened in 2019, the majority could even be six members for the left and three for the right. The PP has absolute control over the Senate.
The liturgy of August 17 in Congress is assessed, first, in articles 2 and 3 of the regulations. The oldest deputy will preside over the constitutive session – in 2019 it was Agustín Zamarreño, from the PSOE, who did not repeat himself on the lists – and the two youngest will act as secretaries. Article 37 of the regulation includes, for its part, that to elect the president of Congress an absolute majority will be required in the first vote. If no one obtains it, "the election will be repeated between the deputies who have reached the two highest votes and the one who obtains the most votes will be elected." Vice-presidents and secretaries are elected simultaneously: whoever achieves the most votes will be elected in successive order.
The next date to follow is the week that begins on August 21, when the King, once the Cortes has been constituted, could start the round of consultations to find out the availability of Sánchez or Feijóo to face an investiture. Neither of them has the numbers to achieve it today. Feijóo contacted Vox, PNV, CC and UPN yesterday. The President of the Government, for his part, plans to take vacations until mid-August. No hurry.
That same week that begins on the 21st, Congress will have to close the constitution of the parliamentary groups, priced for the five days after the constitution of the chamber. The bar for having your own group, which entails greater financial resources, personnel and public exposure, is not exceeded at this time by ERC or Junts, as they have not obtained a minimum of 15% of the votes in the four Catalan constituencies. EH Bildu could cede one of his deputies to the Republicans.
And from there? The scenario that opens for the end of August and September is complex. If the head of the State proposes a candidate for the Presidency of the Government, he would activate the countdown for the holding of second elections. The procedure is regulated in article 99 of the Constitution. The president of Congress would specify when the investiture session would be. According to the usual times, that time could be the first half of September. The candidate would have to obtain an absolute majority in the first ballot or a simple one in a second one forty-eight hours later. If, as happened in 2016, "confidence is not granted, successive proposals will be processed in the manner provided in the previous sections", the Magna Carta includes. A period of two months would then open, until November, to achieve a successful investiture. If no candidate wins the confidence of Congress, the King would dissolve the chambers and call a second election. In other words, the chamber would have until November to overcome the political blockade and avoid electoral repetition. If that investiture fails, the elections could be held at the beginning of 2024. Sánchez already advanced yesterday that he ruled out repeating what happened four years ago.
But there is also the possibility that no candidate opts for the investiture. There is a dangerous precedent: January 2016, when Rajoy declined the offer of the head of state to appear. A month later PSOE and Cs signed an agreement to present Sánchez. It failed, but the clock was activated. The second elections did not prevent a new blockade, which was only deactivated after the federal socialist committee on October 1 that removed Sánchez to facilitate the investiture of the PP candidate.
