The classic form of the population pyramid consists of a broad base of people of young age and culminates in the narrower segments of the adult population. However, in the Spanish case its shape is on the way to becoming an inverted pyramid. This new, unstable form is the result of our high longevity and our very low birth rate, both in a very prominent position on an international scale.
And the outlook is not encouraging: the number of births no longer compensates for the number of deaths and has decreased with the recent crises, despite the expectation that confinement would have a positive impact on our reproductive habits. Similarly, trusting the incorporation of the immigrant population to change the trend is illusory: its higher birth rate, which attenuates the underlying negative trend, lasts little more than a generation, as it quickly adopts local models.
There is another pyramid in the process of inverting itself, that of the levels of income and wealth depending on age, higher in the segments of the population in activity and scarcer in advanced ages (hence, the traditional identification among older people and more at risk of poverty). However, this historical reality is changing: in the last crises, the relative poverty rate that has increased is that of the young, not that of the elderly (because they have more secure incomes – for example, pensions) and, in their in turn, increased longevity tends to postpone the transmission of property between generations. The result is that asset ownership is higher in the older segments and, in some cases (for example, in France), the average income of these segments has been above that obtained by the working population , especially if they are young.
These phenomena constitute a worrying reality. The collective called to reverse the situation - in particular, the low birth rate - is the most negatively affected: job insecurity, higher poverty rate, difficulties in accessing housing, problems with reconciliation... And in addition to all this, the increase in interest rates will play against the indebted population, producing a shift in income in favor of the elderly at the expense of the younger.
Despite everything, this scenario is not irreversible, as the experience of other European countries, such as France and Sweden, shows. It requires realizing the severity of the challenge and adopting a persistent and broadly majoritarian global policy. There would be a stimulating way to state the objective: for the good of young people, and for the interest of society itself, this is conjured so that they can have as many children as they want. It is known that, in Spain, the desired birth rate doubles the actual one and is similar to the replacement rate of the population.
The measures to be included in a Pact for the Desired Birth Rate would be the result of the political agreement. Some, however, seem obvious, as they also contribute to equality: universal and free education for 0-3 years (it is one of the most effective natalist policies and a crucial tool to fight inequality). A sustained social housing policy. Manage the minimum vital income with the same solemnity as pensions. Encourage all property transfers in which young people are the beneficiaries. Finally, promote an ambitious offer of public employment.
