The continuity of Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party and, therefore, British Prime Minister, could be cut short this Monday after the vote on a motion of internal censure. The scandal of the illegal parties in Downing Street in full confinement has put his credibility in check and has earned him a rebellion within his own party. He does not help, either, the forecast of the polls on his seats and on the disorderly direction of the Government.
At the moment, according to the BBC, 73 deputies have publicly endorsed Johnson. However, the vote is secret, so the actual support will not be known until the motion is finalized.
What has given rise to the vote of confidence?
The motion of censure can be initiated in two ways: urged by the leader himself or as a result of the request of at least 15% of the party's deputies. In the current legislature, given that there are 359 parliamentarians, a quorum of 54 is needed.
The Tory rebellion has proceeded according to the usual practice in these cases. Dissatisfied MPs have written a letter to Sir Graham Brady, current chairman of the Conservative Private Members Committee - or more popularly called the 1922 Committee - stating their wish to remove Jonshon. By exceeding 54 letters, Brady has announced the motion of censure.
How will the day unfold?
Conservative MPs will take part in the secret ballot throughout the day. This takes place in the Palace of Westminster. At the end, Brady is expected to announce the result to deputies and the press in the same room where the voting takes place.
What does Boris Johnson need to stay in office?
To get out of the motion of censure unscathed and retain his leadership, Boris Johnson needs a simple majority in his favour; that is, 180 conservative deputies. This would keep him in office for at least a year, during which time no further motions can be filed.
What happens if Boris Johnson loses?
If the motion of censure is successful, Johnson will be forced to resign and the process to invest a new prime minister will begin. If there is only one candidate, this would automatically replace him. If several candidates present themselves, the Tories of the 1922 Committee, whose representatives have no power in the government, would vote in secret during the necessary rounds, eliminating the least voted competitor, until only two contenders were left standing. At this time, the conservative deputies with more than three months of seniority in the party would make the final decision.
What if he wins?
If Boris Johnson wins the vote of confidence, his continuation in office would only be guaranteed for a period of one year. Of course, knowing that a weak confidence in his figure could make his permanence at the head of the government unsustainable in the long term. History shows that the vote of confidence is a sign of the decline of the leader, see the resignation of Margaret Thatcher in 1990, or that of Theresa May in 2018.
