The predictions seem to have come true. At least, according to the projections from the first votes counted. The far-right Giorgia Meloni would have won the elections in Italy with around 24.7% of the vote. The entire right-wing bloc, together with the League, Forza Italia and other minority parties would total around 42.4%, so that although everything indicates that they will be able to govern, we will have to wait for the final results. The projections advanced the resounding victory, but it is necessary to check the seats obtained in Parliament.
What was clear last night is that Meloni, a woman who in the past was active in the neo-fascist youth and who now strives to present herself as a conservative leader who is not going to put Europe in danger, has just convinced the majority of Italians that have been presented this Sunday at the polls. The first figures were in line with the polls of these weeks, and if this Monday the Ministry of the Interior confirms them, they will not surprise anyone. Italy is once again a European political laboratory. After the triumph of M5E populism in 2018, he now trusts the extreme right. It is an indisputable victory for Meloni, who four years ago barely obtained 4% of the votes. She will be the favorite to receive the task of forming a government by Sergio Mattarella.
Instead, the defeat is painful for the left of the Democratic Party (PD), which even before the vote seemed resigned to surrender. They did not know, or could not, agree with anyone, and Enrico Letta's loneliness was very evident. The PD has harvested 19%, according to the first projections. It would be a result similar to the 18% of 2018 – a bump that made Matteo Renzi resign as general secretary – and very unsatisfactory for a Letta who until recently was battling with Meloni for first place. In the end, they have not been able to convey an exciting proposal or recover the voters lost to populism. Nor does it convince the undecided to vote against the extreme right. The final participation data confirms the disinterest of Italians in these elections: only 64% of those called to the polls voted, more than ten points less than in 2018.
The PD has been heavily penalized for not having allied itself in coalition with the 5-Star Movement (M5E), which would have achieved 16.7%, a better-than-expected result, but everything seems to indicate that it is insufficient to prevent the governability of the right. It will be necessary to wait for the final percentages. The centrists of the Third Pole, a coalition formed by former minister Carlo Calenda and former prime minister Matteo Renzi, would have stopped at 7.3%.
Although the majority of Italians have voted for the right, personally the great loser is Matteo Salvini, the leader of the League, who in 2018 reached 17% but who the following year swept the Europeans (reached 34%) with his anti-immigration messages. His outbursts and indecisions have penalized him a lot, and the first projections gave him 8.7%. This Monday will be a day of serious reflection within the League. Silvio Berlusconi, president of Forza Italia, presented himself as the guarantor of the Europeanism of the next government, but he has been devoured by the extreme right that he himself helped grow by leaning on it since the creation of Forza Italia. He would have stopped at 8%, as the polls predicted.
Another of the great conclusions of these elections is the political erosion of Italy. The country went to the polls exhausted, after years of popular discontent that has deep roots. Inequalities are strong, also between the north and south of the country. The electoral campaign began while the Italians were still in the beach bars, and it has become extremely long at a time of social anxiety due to the increase in electricity bills, prices in the supermarket or the uncertainty of a winter that black is expected. No one fully understands why Mario Draghi's government fell, and not even the political parties are capable of giving the same version of it, blaming each other. Italy, a political steamroller, changes its prime minister every year and a half. Not even Super Mario, the savior of the euro, has been able to finish the job he started on the orders of President Sergio Mattarella. The former president of the European Central Bank was applauded when he went to deposit the ballot.
Most of the Italian political leaders voted in the morning. One of the early risers was Florentine Matteo Renzi, who was in a hurry to catch a plane and fly to Japan for Shinzo Abe's state funeral. But the most anticipated image took a long time to arrive. Meloni had summoned the press at 11 in the morning at his polling station, but due to the large presence of photographers at the end he decided to postpone it until the last moment so as not to disturb those who showed up to deposit the ballot. There she already felt like a winner.
