France proceeded yesterday to the evacuation, by means of three military Airbus, of its citizens residing in Niger. The measure was taken due to the worsening of the crisis in the African country, victim of a coup on Wednesday of last week, and the danger of an armed intervention by neighboring states.
Spain, Italy and Germany also announced the repatriation of their nationals. Rome indicated that it would send a plane. It was not clear in the Spanish case, for security reasons. The Berlin authorities advised German citizens to take advantage of French flights, as Paris offered other Europeans the chance to leave Niger on their planes.
The French government wanted to take advantage of the relative calm, although tense, in Niamey to save its civilian colony – between 600 and 700 people – before events precipitate. The LCI chain offered images of vehicle controls at the access to the Niamey airport and of French people queuing with their suitcases in a calm environment. The French General Staff reported, however, that the evacuation of its 1,500 soldiers who remain in Niger "is not the order of the day."
On Sunday, the one-week ultimatum given by eleven countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) will expire for the Nigerian coup junta to drop its attitude and the legitimate president, Mohamed Bazoum, elected in 2021, to be restored to power. and that he has been detained since the putsch. Otherwise, ECOWAS does not exclude the use of force.
The risk of an escalation with serious regional consequences is there. Mali and Burkina Faso, both countries ruled by military juntas that emerged from coups, stood in solidarity with the new strong man in Niamey, General Abdourahamane Tiani. "Any military intervention against Niger would amount to a declaration of war against Mali and Burkina Faso," the spokesmen for both regimes declared in unison. The Government of Guinea, also in the hands of the military since the overthrow of Alpha Condé in September 2021, spoke in similar terms. The solidarity between coup plotters is manifest.
It is probable that, in the event of foreign military intervention, it will be Nigeria, a neighbor of Niger and current president of ECOWAS, which will provide the bulk of the troops, a ground intervention with air support. It is unknown what involvement the 1,500 French soldiers still in Niger and the 1,100 Americans would have. Both contingents have participated in recent years, with the approval of the Niamey authorities, in the anti-jihadist fight. There is no doubt that the coup junta will be tempted to accuse Paris of complicity and logistical support, one more reason for danger if French citizens remain in the country.
In addition to the military threat, ECOWAS decreed an economic and financial blockade against Niger. Nigeria has an additional lever of pressure on its neighbor, to which it supplies 50% of its electrical energy. The recently elected Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu, maintains a very firm position against coups. He and other regional leaders believe that one must be intransigent with the rebels due to the serious danger of contagion.
