The intensification of global warming continually presents new evidence. Normally, temperature rises followed an upward line, in a sawtooth shape accompanied by some pauses. But in the last year, the increases indicate an unstoppable rise, with marks well above previous records, which continues to astonish climatologists. Last month became the hottest October on the planet by registering a surface air temperature of 15.3ºC, that is, 0.4ºC above the hottest October so far (2019). But the most significant thing is that the prediction is consolidating that the year 2023 will end up being the hottest recorded so far.
In the period from January to October 2023, the global average temperature has been the highest recorded, as it has been 1.43°C above the average of the pre-industrial era (1850-1900); and it has been 0.10°C higher than the average for the same period in 2016, which was until now the warmest year on record.
The succession of records might seem routine, but when it is an unusual climatic alteration. “What we are seeing is something exceptional and surprising, although it is all part of the same warming pattern,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change service of the European Commission, told this newspaper.
The June-July-August period was classified as the hottest on record on the planet. Last September was also. And October has repeated the same script. Specifically, 1.7°C more than the average for the months of October were measured for the period 1850-1900.
“We are talking about a month of October with almost half a degree of increase in temperature compared to the hottest month of October until now. Throughout the year we follow an exceptional warming trajectory. Month after month we see very high increases.
2023 will be virtually the hottest ever,” says Buontempo. “It is not a change that we expected; It is such a big change compared to what the last few years have been, that we can talk about something really extreme,” adds the climatologist.
The reasons are well known; Added to the growing emission of greenhouse gases produced by fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil) are the effects caused by El Niño, a warming process initiated in the waters of the equatorial Pacific with an impact on a large part of the planet. Added to all this are the records in the middle latitudes of the planet, adds Copernicus.
In fact, the certainty that it will be the hottest year has increased because the margins of difference with respect to those accumulated from January to September have widened (see graphs).
The same report indicates that in Europe October 2023 was the fourth warmest October on record (1.3ºC more than the 1991-2020 average). And in the same way, the sea temperature in the non-polar areas (60°S and 60°N) reached 20.79°C, which was the highest for the month of October. More data. For the sixth consecutive month, October marked the smallest sea ice area (11% less than average) while in the Arctic ice pack the seventh smallest extent was measured since these measurements were made by satellite (1979).
In Spain, it was the second warmest October in the historical series, which began in 1961. The average peninsular temperature was 17.2°C, that is, 2.6ºC above the average in the reference period (1991-2020). .
