Not even an earthquake could with him. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has clearly prevailed this Sunday over his rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. With 98% counted, the current president would revalidate the position, with two million more votes than the opposition candidate. In other words, Erdogan has won 52% of the vote, against 48% for Kiliçdaroglu.
Turnout at the polls, over 85%, has once again been very high. However, it is down almost five points from the first round, which would have hurt Kiliçdaroglu the most, whose electoral base is less disciplined. Where participation has grown, 11%, is in the emigration vote, which traditionally benefits Erdogan.
Optimism has already changed sides with the results of the first round, in which Erdogan caressed 50% of the votes, contradicting almost all the polls. Since then, a certain demobilization of the Kiliçdaroglu voters was detectable, due to the jug of cold water, despite winning in all the big cities and even in the district of Istanbul where Erdogan votes.
Kiliçdaroglu's shift to the right at the end of the campaign, in order to capture the ultranationalist and anti-immigrant vote, could have accentuated this demobilization, especially among voters borrowed from left-wing Kurdish nationalism. The first impression is that the two candidates have shared the votes that in the first round went to the ultra Sinan Ogan, of the Ancestral Alliance.
It should be noted that with more than 71% scrutinized, the private agency Anka, close to the opposition, still gave Kiliçdaroglu the winner. While the public agency Anadolu gave Erdogan the winner from the beginning, although his margin was reduced as the scrutiny progressed. Two and a quarter hours after the polls closed, the caravans of cars celebrating Erdogan's victory began to be heard in Istanbul neighborhoods such as Üsküdar.
Here ends the presidential dream of Kemal Kiliçdaroglu and probably his political career, at 74 years old. In truth, he has turned out to be a much more solid and tough candidate to crack - even without raising his voice - than almost anyone expected, despite spending thirteen years as general secretary of the Republican People's Party (CHP). It was an unequal fight against the roller of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which not only has ten times as many militants, but, after twenty years in power, is beginning to be dangerously confused with the state.
In the previous presidential elections, the first under the current ultra-presidential system, the CHP candidate was Muharram Ince, who was defeated with a much worse result, in the first round. This time, Erdogan has had to push himself very hard and, along the way, the state coffers seem to have hit rock bottom. This Monday will be a difficult day for the Turkish lira, which on Friday already hit its all-time low against the euro.
Erdogan's victory will have consequences on the world stage. It is no coincidence that the first to congratulate him was the Hungarian Viktor Orbán. Sweden will remain on the doorstep of NATO, at least for the next few months. And there will be no change in the active neutrality in favor of the negotiation in Ukraine that Ankara has shown up to now. Millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey, meanwhile, will go to sleep with the feeling of buying time.
