The war in Ukraine is changing the concept of ground combat. Swarms of small drones from both sides, costing infinitely less than, for example, an anti-tank projectile, have managed to almost completely paralyze the lines. These unmanned devices, which not only launch bombs but also carry out surveillance tasks, locate and neutralize a target – vehicle or individual – in a short time. The war has become static. The armored vehicle or the soldier who goes out into the open field a few kilometers from the line of contact has the minutes of survival numbered.
Experts debate whether this change will be only tactical or will also be strategic, but the psychological effects that these swarms cause among combatants and, therefore, among those who make operational decisions is translating into the immobility of the units closest to the forehead.
Nicolás de Pedro, head of research at The Institute for Statecraft, a think tank based in London, comments for La Vanguardia: “The battlefield has remained static. “We have entered a phase of transformation of the war.”
The presence of drones in the conflict since the Russian invasion itself has been numerically subject to an ascending and progressive curve that seems to have no end. At the beginning of the war, figures were in the tens, very soon they moved to the manufacture and use of thousands and now we are talking about millions. Ukraine has a program to adapt and put into operation at least one million so-called FPV devices, that is, those that are piloted with virtual reality glasses.
Although at the moment the manufacturing of these originally domestic, almost recreational devices is in Chinese hands, both Russia, and especially Ukraine, are beginning to develop their own components. In fact, “a plan has been designed from Kyiv to create dozens of small workshops,” explains Alberto Pérez Vadillo, an expert on international peace and security issues, based in Moscow. In these mini factories in private garages, hundreds of devices could be assembled per month. They can't create a large factory because obviously it would be a military target, probably from Russian drone swarms. Moscow can build a large-scale assembly plant due to the size of its territory.
“Nowadays the drone of drones is so intense that it can even break the morale of the troops. “Certain defenses are broken because we cannot send food and supplies, nor remove the wounded from bunkers or machine gun nests,” says Juan Chulilla, executive director of Red Team Shield (RTS), a company dedicated to consulting for the protection of critical or sensitive infrastructure from attacks with lethal commercial or domestic drones. That is why company analysts continuously monitor what is happening in the war in Ukraine. “On the long line of contact there are, day and night, dozens of eyes watching that patrol and provide intelligence in real time,” he tells this newspaper.
“There are no longer stretcher bearers near the front line,” Chulilla concludes. Both sides are trying to have these maneuvers carried out by ground drones at those points near the line of contact. The delivery of food and ammunition is a relatively simple operation, however removing a casualty is something much more complex and expensive, no matter what the circumstances of the unmanned ground device used. There is already speculation that high-capacity aerial cargo drones will be the ones that remove the injured from certain areas. It has not been done yet, but experts do not rule it out in the medium term.
FPV type drones are capable, unlike any traditional munition, of turning a corner, placing themselves at the most vulnerable point of a battle tank, of sneaking through a window or through the breathing duct of a bunker and exploding. So many can be sent at once due to their low cost that even if only a quarter of those launched hit, the operation can be a success.
These devices with good radio equipment and a certain charging capacity can have an average price of about 2,000 to 3,000 euros, although they can also be obtained for 1,000 with somewhat less reliability. The price of a Javelin-type anti-armor projectile costs about 115,000 euros and a Spike-type projectile, about 150,000. The combatants have already made their calculations.
Furthermore, the radio distance, that is, the maximum distance at which the device responds to the pilot's commands, has been increasing over the months since the war began. Thus, it started out at about 10 kilometers, then it went to 15 and currently the record has been established at 22, with the capacity to be armed with an average explosive charge of two and a half kilos, depending on the model.
Their flight range is usually about 10 to 12 minutes and they travel at a maximum speed of 80 kilometers per hour.
These very specific capabilities of drones have led to the fact that now “the objectives have turned towards individual targets, towards individuals,” explains the professor at the University of La Laguna, an expert in conflict theory.
“The movements of soldiers outside of battle tanks are currently carried out in groups of individuals no larger than a section (about 30 troops, depending on the unit) and increasingly the movements are carried out in pairs,” explains Chulilla. There are calculations that indicate that the estimate of casualties (dead and wounded) currently in operations on foot is a chilling percentage of 60%. One could almost speak of suicidal maneuvers. “Drones are cheap ammunition with which the enemy can be saturated,” concludes researcher Nicolás de Pedro.
The dispersion of troops is necessary to minimize casualties in the event of an attack with drones and, in general, artillery fire. In fact, such dispersion also applies to armored vehicles and tanks. “The surprise effect has completely disappeared,” explains the head of Red Team Shield.
They have not disappeared, but currently groupings of armored cars in grouped advances are becoming extinct in Ukraine. They are too easy a target for swarms. The changes in this area also affect fixed artillery pieces, those that are transported towed and statically planted on the ground. Now they have to be located far enough from the line of contact so as not to enter the range of action of the drones that locate them very quickly and attack them.
For this reason, more people are opting for self-propelled artillery pieces that move to a point, carry out a bombardment and withdraw very quickly.
Although the anti-drone fight is being developed day by day, one of the solutions is to leave the device offline; that the pilot cannot maneuver it or, directly, that the quadcopter goes to the ground due to electronic warfare mechanisms. “In this area, the Russians have better capabilities, although it is known that less sophisticated drones have an easier time continuing to operate. Battle tanks have begun to have a kind of metal layer on the turret as an umbrella to prevent projectiles from entering from a drone,” explains retired Army Lieutenant General Francisco Gan Pampols. “War has to adapt to new scenarios,” says this soldier.
One of the effective consequences of all this is that the immobility of operations on the line of contact means that positions are being greatly reinforced. Russia had already done it, but Ukraine has already started doing it.
“If the defense is consolidated by both parties, an opportunity for an agreement may arise. It would be a good time for the pigeons and not for the hawks,” says Pérez Vadillo, venturing a theory that is not shared by other consulted experts. “The conflict will last until 2026. The plans of both sides are what they seem to indicate, with a probable Russian offensive in 2025,” comments Professor Pérez Gil.
What seems assured is that combat with drones will continue and will mark the operational theater as it is already doing now, being the scenario on which other external actors, other countries and, who knows, terrorist or criminal organizations, have their eyes set.
