Who benefits from low participation in Barcelona in municipal elections? The complexity of the Barcelona electoral map does not allow us to give an answer to this question and unravel a factor that is especially relevant in the appointment with the polls next Sunday, in which the majority of published polls point to a high abstention rate. However, a study prepared by Public Affairs Experts, based on the historical distribution of abstention in the three previous municipal elections, shows that abstention in the highest-income neighborhoods of the city, which are normally those that register the highest turnout for polling stations, does not necessarily imply greater participation in areas where BComú and the PSC have a greater mobilization of the vote, and vice versa.
The analysis points out a series of conclusions regarding the four political options with the best chances of winning the elections. Mayor Ada Colau's party fares better in neighborhoods with a greater tendency to abstain. That is why BComú could benefit from not having a high turnout in the northwestern neighborhoods of the city, where it usually obtains its worst results. In the first elections of Ada Colau (2015) the commons prevailed in the neighborhoods of the eastern zone, which traditionally tend to have a lower participation.
The PSC tends to do better in neighborhoods with a greater tendency to abstain, which is why, as is the case with BComú, it would benefit from an increase in participation in the eastern part of the city, where it has the bulk of support. The difference between the PSC and the commons, points out the report by Public Affairs Experts, must be found in the candidate: the socialist Jaume Collboni could aspire to seduce the electorate of the Sarrià-Sant Gervasi district, where participation is higher, something that it does not happen in the case of Ada Colau. In this context, a drop in participation in the district with the highest income would not benefit Collboni as much as Colau.
Together they usually achieve their best results in areas that register a participation above the city average. In case of increased participation, the probability that the mobilized voters will opt for the candidacy of Xavier Trias is greater. Both Junts and BComú and the PSC are interested in a mobilization of the districts in which their support is concentrated. This is Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, the Corts and the Eixample, in the case of Junts; and Horta-Guinardó, Nou Barris, Sant Andreu and Sant Martí in the case of communes and socialists.
The fourth in contention, Esquerra Republicana, has a very cross-sectional electorate, little affected by the neighborhood in which it resides and by abstention. The greater the participation, there is usually an improvement in the results for the candidacy that this time Ernest Maragall heads again, but this does not definitively translate into a large harvest of votes.
The report also analyzes the effects of abstention on the smallest formations, those for which being above or below 5% of the votes that gives access to the City Council means success or failure. An increase in participation would make it difficult for candidates such as Vox, the Cup, Ciudadanos or Valents to enter the Consistory.
On the other hand, the parties most associated with the system tend to have an older electorate. This is the case of Junts and the PSC. By contrast, newer parties, such as BComú, tend to attract a younger vote. In general, older people tend to participate more than young people in elections.
