A weaker-than-expected start to the autumn season due to high temperatures had set off alarm bells in commerce. With the exception of leisure and travel, sales did not start, with a special drop in the textile sector, which came to describe the situation as a “real drama.” Even the fashion giant Inditex has seen how sales in its third quarter (August to October) have slowed, with growth of 6.7%, below analysts' forecasts and breaking a streak of ten quarters with double digit increments.
But as the last two months have progressed, consumption has gained oxygen. The Christmas campaign is going “better than expected”, agree both large operators and small businesses consulted. Black Friday already marked this recovery, comments from El Corte Inglés. “The question was whether this would swallow up the sales of the Constitution Bridge, and that has not been the case,” they continue from the department stores. Sales remain sustained and expectations in the coming weekends, key for the Christmas campaign, are high, they add.
The same is indicated by the Spanish Association of Shopping Centers. “The influx and volume of spending have gained momentum since the end of November and are not declining,” says Víctor García, delegate of the entity in Catalonia. Among the reasons for this recovery, García highlights the activation of bottled consumption during much of the autumn. The star categories at Christmas continue to be fashion and home furnishings, the sectors that sold the least during September and October. The late arrival of the cold and Christmas gifts have activated purchases that were not made in that period because customers did not see the need.
This is suggested by the analyzes of business associations and banking entities. The barometer of the textile association Acotex shows an interannual decrease in sales of 3.7% in October, while in November an increase of 1.8% is already observed. CaixaBank Research data move in the same direction. Consumption in November rose 8.5%, the largest increase since April. Regarding card spending, it also presented better performance in the first week of December, with an increase compared to the same period last year of 8.9%. Such an increase has not been recorded since the second quarter.
Large distribution sources also comment that volume sales are growing in the final stretch of the year. The runaway inflation at the beginning of 2023 had increased the value, but households bought fewer products. “The trend is changing,” they continue. “Throughout the year, mass consumption sales have grown by 12% in value and now we are finally seeing a recovery in volume, which is a very positive sign,” says Vanessa Páez, analyst at NielsenIQ.
Not only large operators benefit from this revitalization of consumption. The small business, which had a not so positive Black Friday campaign, has high hopes for these last days of the year and until Epiphany. “This campaign will be more important than ever; After a few months of stagnation, it will be crucial to recover profitability,” explains Antoni Torres, president of PimeComerç.
The majority of merchants in the Comertia association predict that this will be the case. 41% of business owners expect a better Christmas campaign than the previous year, while 38.5% believe there will be stability and only 20% are pessimistic given the context of inflation and rising rates.
Now, the doubt that spreads throughout the sector is whether the consumerist pace will continue after Reyes and the sales. It will be the litmus test, they say, to evaluate the health of consumption.
