This week a senior official at Podem acknowledged: "With this new Compromís it is impossible." Minutes later, a leader of the Valencian coalition made the same reflection, closing the door to any pre-election agreement in the face of the autonomic ones. Regarding the municipal ones, the slogan that each group will be able to decide was repeated again, since in some localities the relations between both formations -as in Alicante city- are very good, while in others that tension that exists at the regional level is reproduced .
There is no sign that there could be a great pact for the autonomic ones and it seems that the agreements in the municipalities will be punctual. It will even be necessary to see if the Unides Podem formula is repeated and if, as it already happened in 2019, in many towns Podem and Esquerra Unida go separately.
And it is that on this occasion it is expected that the negotiation between the two formations to reissue a coalition will be more tense than four years ago, when the EU, evicted from Les Corts Valencianes, barely offered resistance.
It is difficult to know what could happen in the event of a great coalition to the left of the PSPV in the elections for the Presidency of the Generalitat, since it has never happened since the irruption of Podem in the Valencian political scene.
Yes, in 2007 there was a first Compromís that included Esquerra Unida and the parties that ended up keeping the new brand. Then –in a coalition full of tensions that ended up exploding- they added 195,116 votes; 73,000 fewer ballots than in the previous regional elections (2003) and 125,800 fewer than in the subsequent one in 2011 (in both they were separate).
Not even the Unides Podem coalition of 2019 (it achieved 215,392 supports) added more than what purples and esquerraunistas added separately in 2015.
And it does not seem that there is a multiplier effect in the autonomic ones where the famous phrase that in politics two plus two does not always equal four becomes evident.
Some of the reasons were already seen in the 2019 CIS pre-election survey. Thus, 40.4% of those who voted for the US in the previous regional elections said they would never vote for Podemos, while 25.6% of those who voted for Podemos "I would certainly never vote" for the US.
Although there was no coalition between them, it could already be seen that the animosity between the different sensibilities was not exclusive to these parties. 26.5% of the 2015 Compromís voters would never vote for Podemos and 21.3% of the purple voters assured that they would not take the ballot for the Valencian coalition.
Some insurmountable differences that trigger any multiplier effect.
Compromís takes these two issues – the little electoral revenue and the ideological distance – to think that, with the data on the table, it is better for them to go separately. And the argument that, without a large leftist coalition, one of the Botànic's legs could be left out and the revival of the progressive government could be in danger is not even valid for them. At the moment, yes, the polls maintain the space of Unides Podem within the autonomous Parliament.
For this reason, and with the excuse that Sumar will not stand in the municipal and regional elections, Compromís leaves any option for a large left-wing front for later. Although it is not that they were enthusiastic about the project of the vice president Yolanda Díaz – in the presentation ceremony last Saturday they were struck by the presence, among the participants, of Pedro Fresco, general director of Transició Ecològica, in the Ministry that until recently directed by Mireia Mollà. The former minister who was fired by her own party has always been one of the great defenders of Díaz's project since its inception.
However, in Compromís they believe that in the current political ecosystem of generals, a good candidate may be enough. In fact, as this newspaper publishes, in the last CIS, Díaz came out stronger, despite the internal struggle in the Unidas Podemos space, and was close to passing (4.9), improving the score of the CIS by almost two tenths. October barometer.
Nor is it that Compromís has been good at the scenario of going solo for some generals. Without the EU or Podem, the most it achieved was the 176,287 of the last generals -with Más País- and it did not achieve more than one deputy in Congress. On the other hand, with the alliance between Podem and Compromís (in 2015 and with a PSPV that had not yet established itself as the first party in Valencian politics) they added 673,549 votes and nine deputies.
The formula would be repeated a year later, adding the US, but the result was worse (659,771 votes). Not even the fact of becoming the second political force generated much joy in the Valencian supporters, since its four deputies could not form their own parliamentary group, which generated added tensions within this political space.
Despite being the first time that the PSPV moved to third position, what is certain is that the best result of the three forces occurred in the 2015 elections that enabled political change in the Valencian Community where, the sum separately of Compromís, Podem and EU added 846,129 votes. A support that no coalition formula has managed to achieve.
