The world seems headed towards a new partition into two blocks, as in the cold war. On one side, we find liberal democracies with the rule of law, separation of powers and free markets. Although we represent 60% of the world's GDP, we constitute only 15% of the population. Lucky members of this group include EU countries, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada. Since 1945, the US has led this bloc thanks to its technological, cultural and military primacy.
At the other extreme, countries that represent around 55% of the population, but only 30% of the world's GDP, forge alliances. The group includes the five Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which next year will add Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, the Emirates and Ethiopia. Unlike the countries of the USSR during the Cold War, this bloc does not share the same political system and is marked by enormous geographical, cultural and religious distances. Their main common bond, with nuances, is a feeling of revenge against the West. Although the objectives of these countries are far from homogeneous, part of their strategy is managed discreetly from Beijing and, in some aspects, from Moscow.
In the Cold War, the objective of both blocs was to expand their sphere of influence through ideological offensive, trade, technology, nuclear deterrence and, sometimes, armed conflict. In this new version of the anti-Western bloc we see similar patterns. China has for years expanded its influence in natural resource countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America through state-directed trade policies, and has now reinforced this strategy with considerable military spending that threatens stability in the China Sea. For its part, Russia bases its influence on its war capabilities, as is being seen in Ukraine, Syria and Armenia, as well as its disinformation campaigns in Western democracies.
Unlike Soviet times, this bloc does not try to impose an ideology. After the collapse of communism and its miseries, most of these countries, many of them autocracies, have built their societies around a strong nationalist feeling of patriotic exaltation that is difficult to export. Although this new separation of the blocks will not be as clear as before due to the deep global economic interconnection, the world is moving towards an uncertain path.
One way to avoid a new cold war could lie in breaking the bloc dynamics. In the Middle East, this strategy includes the Abraham Accords (of Israel with the Emirates, Morocco and Bahrain) and, above all, the agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia that should be signed in the coming months.
With the war in Palestine, Hamas has inflamed tensions in the Arab world, deepening the division. Its possible beneficiaries are Iran and Russia. The first because it predisposes Arab countries against Israel and thus makes it difficult to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia, its great rival. Russia forces the US to focus on a new war focus beyond Ukraine.
In this context, preserving peace and Western achievements since the Enlightenment, including individual freedom, requires a very realistic approach and a shared strategy. The West must unapologetically promote rules that ensure a future in which the search for understanding always prevails over conflict.
