Conflict analyst and international politician, expert in peace processes, Vicenç Fisas has just published “Win-Win. The Chinese strategy to seduce the world” (Akal) and “Hegemonies, blocs and powers in the 21st century. The world order after the war in Ukraine ”(Waterfall). Fisas thinks that China will be key in resolving the conflict in Ukraine, but considers that the peace plan presented in recent days is still too vague.
The bulk of his latest book on China is an analysis of the speeches of its leaders. Is it necessary to resort to semantics to understand how the Asian power works?
The Chinese mentality is to do things little by little and always think long term. That is why these speeches are important, they are all similar, but in them there are key ideas that are transmitted from one to another and evolve. The one who builds a first vision of China in the world is Jiang Zemin, general secretary of the party between 1989 and 2002. It is in this period when the idea of commitment to world peace, cooperation and mutual benefit between countries is elaborated as a formula for open up to the world His successor, Hu Jintao, will consolidate that idea.
At the last congress of the Communist Party, in October 2022, Hu Jintao was unusually expelled from the meeting. Is that a reflection of the changes?
In fact, with the turn of the century, a leap in the language of Chinese leaders can already be seen. With the arrival of Xi Jinping to the general secretariat in 2012, the emphasis on China as a great power is absolute. We must make ourselves respected, he affirms over and over again. We will never return to the century of humiliation [referring to the period of intervention in the country by the imperialist powers, Japan and Great Britain between 1839 and 1949].
You speak in your book of seducing the world. Have they got it?
They have enormous economic power and also a good investment capacity. They are a technological and commercial power, and that has translated into geopolitics and diplomacy. It is also perceived in the voting in the UN. It can be said that yes, they have seduced the world, but it is a temporary seduction. It is something that can change in a couple of decades. In Africa, for example, China has built the infrastructures that the European colonial metropolises did not. But she has done it through credit. The result is that those countries have borrowed heavily from China. That is not sustainable in the long term...
To what extent is this discourse of peace and cooperation credible?
Only up to a certain point. In recent years, Chinese power has entered into contradictions, between what they say and what they do. They talk about peace, but their goal is to become a military power and year after year they have not stopped increasing military spending. They are already a military power in the Pacific, a world region that has become a powder keg and that can explode at any moment for Taiwan. The United States has more than 80 military bases in the Indo-Pacific. It has agreed to sell five nuclear submarines to Australia. Japan has abandoned the limits it had on military spending. All this is stimulating an arms race in the area.
To what extent has the war in Ukraine altered the plans that the Chinese leadership had?
Just a few months ago, Xi Jinping said during an interview that Vladimir Putin is his best friend. Saying something like that is very strong. And I don't know if it suits you. The Chinese president can make an easy read on the West as a rival. But the truth is that China has many economic interests in Europe, and Europe is well positioned in this war. This should make you think...
Is China the key to stopping this conflict?
Definitely. Xi Jinping can stop the war with a simple phone call. He can do it.
China has presented a ten-point peace plan that arouses Western misgivings. What opinion do you deserve?
It seems little to me. The first point is very abstract. If it is true that they believe in the territorial sovereignty of countries, it is not understandable that they follow Putin's game. It remains to be seen how far Xi Jinping is willing to go with that plan. In any case, it is good that they have taken a first step. But they must hurry to talk to Volodimir Zelensky. If they do not advance, it will mean that they do not want to do it. And then all his talk about peace will be empty.
On Xi Jinping's last visit to Moscow, Russia has been quick to say yes to that plan.
Russia cannot say no. Whatever China's proposal. The issue is in that first point that she mentioned to you, which is the territorial integrity of Ukraine. China will have to explain how it understands it. Whether she is talking about withdrawing Russian troops from the area or leaving them there. She must explain if they propose to go back to the 2014 borders [when Russia invaded Crimea and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions]. Nobody knows.
Suppose they get to start those conversations. What content would they have?
Well, I think the topic will be peace by territory. It will be to know what part of Ukraine is ready to cede to Russia. Or if both agree to give a special status to those territories. Sooner or later, Europe will get tired of sending more weapons. And Russia has the capacity to hold out for another two years. She will hold up badly. But she will endure. By then the death toll on both sides, and the hatred, will not have stopped growing. The current generation will no longer be able to make reconciliation.
