The process is passed in Catalonia, although it is very present in the rest of Spain. This is seen in the survey published today by La Vanguardia. The mobilization of the independence movement as a driving force of the vote, whether for or against, declines, while other issues become relevant on the Catalan social agenda. Politics are cycles.
These days we are witnessing the agony of Ciudadanos also in Catalonia, where it was born in 2006. It emerged a few months after the new Statute was approved in the Parliament. And it expires precisely when the amnesty law is being processed to settle the judicial consequences of the process, which reached its climax in 2017. The clash with the Catalan independence movement is no longer enough to survive and the vote is once again concentrated in the PP, which guarantees that aspect but also represents an alternative to the left in others.
The independence movement continues to represent a good part of Catalan society, but surveys show that it is unmotivated. The figure of Carles Puigdemont can serve for Junts to compete with ERC, but not to lead an overwhelming current like the one experienced years ago and in no case to complete a secession process as the former president proclaimed this week.
Aware that the concerns of many pro-independence voters now focus on other issues, Puigdemont tried to demonstrate in his conference that, despite the distance, he knows the current needs of Catalans, such as the drought, the quality of education or the indecisions about infrastructures. He placed special emphasis on financing, in a kind of return to the “Spain steals from us” of the beginnings of the process. But the La Vanguardia survey reveals that Junts has lost points in the image of management efficiency that was attributed to Convergència.
Presenting oneself as the most genuinely pro-independence candidate is no longer an extraordinary element of mobilization. At least he can't be the only one. Oriol Junqueras sensed some time ago that Catalan society would move towards other priorities after the failure of the unilateral declaration of independence. But ERC's options have been hampered by a slim parliamentary majority, complexes regarding Junts, and timorous management and leadership from the Generalitat.
Hence, Salvador Illa has become the alternative after a journey through the desert of more than a decade. The amnesty has not convinced almost half of his voters, but it does not concern them enough to stand him down either. In order for Illa to rule, however, some conditions would have to be met. The survey does not show a pro-independence majority that would prevent him from passing and this would have been difficult to build given the accumulated hostility. But Illa would need the support of one of the two major pro-independence parties, Junts or ERC.
Without the pardons and amnesty, neither of these two possibilities could even be put on the table, although right now only the second seems viable. For some time, the PSC leader believed it was possible to build bridges with the former. He tried to join them in the pacts in deputations and in the Barcelona City Council with the help of Xavier Trias. Finally, he came to the conclusion that this route is dead as long as Puigdemont handles the reins of Junts in a personal and non-transferable manner. On the other hand, he sees pacts with ERC as feasible.
If the result of 12-M is similar to that of the survey, the Republicans will have to resolve a dilemma that is not easy to handle internally. Entering the government with the PSC or even a tripartite with the commons would leave Junts all the opposition space. Allowing Illa's investiture and supporting budgets from outside the Executive is more bearable, but it means giving up a share of power that ERC had a hard time achieving. Finally, staying in does not lead to an electoral repetition of which they would appear guilty when many Catalans point to politicians as the worst problem.
Between now and May 12, many surprises may arise, but now the survey detects a clear desire for change in Catalan society. Although they may encounter a blockage.
