The tension on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not new, but this Monday the hostilities were revived and it does not seem that there will be a ceasefire for now. In the face of this increasingly violent conflict, Armenia warns that there is a risk that deadly clashes with neighboring territory could end in war.
The Armenian Defense Ministry has accused Azerbaijani forces of launching combat drones in the direction of the Armenian resort city of Jermuk last night and resuming artillery and mortar shelling this morning in the direction of that area and the village of Verin Shorzha.
The Azerbaijani army, in turn, accuses the Armenian forces of shelling their positions in the Azerbaijani districts of Kalbajar and Lachin, near the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia says at least 49 of its soldiers have been killed since fighting broke out early Tuesday, while Azerbaijan says it has already lost 50 fighters.
The two former Soviet countries have been locked in a decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is part of Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since the 1994 separatist war ended.
During a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan recaptured large swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories from Armenian forces. More than 6,700 people were killed in the fighting, which ended in a Russian-brokered peace deal.
This Tuesday, Russia rushed to negotiate the end of the latest hostilities, but the ceasefire it tried to negotiate has not been maintained. The two sides blame each other for ceasefire violations, while the international community urges calm.
"Despite calls from the international community and the ceasefire agreement reached, the Armenian armed forces continue attacks and provocations on the state border using artillery and other heavy weapons," the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said on Wednesday. , which states that two Azerbaijani civilians were injured by Armenian shelling in Kalbajar and Lachin districts.
For his part, the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has announced that his government has asked Russia for military support under a friendship treaty between the countries, and also requested help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Moscow-dominated security alliance of former Soviet nations.
Moscow has engaged in a delicate balancing act in trying to maintain friendly ties with both nations. It has strong economic and security ties with Armenia, which is home to a Russian military base, while it has also been developing close cooperation with oil-rich Azerbaijan.
Some observers see the outbreak of fighting as an attempt by Azerbaijan to force Armenian authorities into faster implementation of some of the provisions of the 2020 peace deal, such as the opening of transport corridors through its territory. "Azerbaijan has greater military potential, so it tries to dictate its conditions to Armenia and use force to push through the diplomatic decisions it wants," Sergei Markedonov, a Russian expert on the South Caucasus region, wrote in a comment.
Markedonov notes that the current upsurge in hostilities comes just as Russia has been forced to withdraw from areas of northeastern Ukraine following a Ukrainian counter-offensive, adding that Armenia's request for help has put Russia in a precarious position.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders of other CSTO members discussed the situation in a call late on Tuesday, urging a swift end to hostilities.
The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, affirms that the mission will deliver to the leaders of the CSTO member states a report assessing the situation. "On Friday, Putin is scheduled to meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where the two are scheduled to attend a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security grouping dominated by Russia and China."
