According to the Electoral Law reformed in 2016 by the agreement of all the parties, only an investiture held against the clock in the last week of August would prevent new elections from being held in the middle of Christmas, in the event that none of them succeed in the next two months and the elections had to be repeated.
That 2016 electoral reform reduced the deadlines and procedures in the event of an investiture blockade. The norm shortens the electoral period from 54 to 47 days and limits the campaign to eight days, which lasts two weeks in the ordinary call and halves the subsidies.
On that occasion, the reform went ahead precisely to prevent the elections from having to be held on December 25. This time, if the deadlines to call the investiture are extended beyond the first days of September, the appointment with the polls could be on December 24 or 31, Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve, respectively, which also coincide with a long weekend three day holiday
The new Congress was constituted last Thursday, August 17. That same day, the president of the Lower House, Francina Armengol, informed the King, to whom she transferred the list of political formations with parliamentary representation that has allowed the round of contacts with the head of state to begin. The first to go through La Zarzuela was the president of UPN, Javier Esparza.
King Felipe VI held the round of consultations with the seven parties that have shown their willingness to meet with him between Monday and Tuesday. ERC, Junts, Bildu and BNG will not attend the meeting because they do not recognize the legitimacy of the monarch to propose the candidate for the investiture and, therefore, his position will not be reflected.
Parallel to these consultations, the term for the constitution of the Parliamentary Groups in Congress passes, which will end on the 25th and will mean the appointment of the corresponding spokespersons. To endorse this constitution, a Table will be held on Monday, the 28th and only from that moment on, plenary sessions can be convened.
During the 15 days following the constitutive session, the opening session of the legislature will be held. Therefore, the investiture debate could not be held before the last days of August or in the first week of September, the most probable date.
Thus, if the investiture is held at that time, the two-month period to elect the new Prime Minister would expire at the beginning of November and the 47 days that must mediate between the dissolution of the Cortes and the holding of the elections would make it possible to set the appointment with the polls on Sunday, December 17.
On the other hand, if the first investiture vote were to take place in the three following weeks of September, the dates for holding elections would fall squarely on Christmas, Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve or the day after Three Kings. Only if the investiture date were set for the month of October, the electoral appointment would already be moved to the month of January 2024.
In order to be sworn in as president, the candidate would have to obtain an absolute majority in the first vote (176 deputies) or obtain more votes in favor than against in a second plenary session that would have to be held 48 hours later.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo has secured the 137 votes of his party, the 33 of Vox, the UPN (1) and the Canary Coalition (1). In total, he would add 172, insufficient both on the first ballot and on the second if all other parties vote against it.
For his part, Pedro Sánchez could count on the 121 of the PSOE and the 31 of Sumar and with the support of various minority groups, which in the event of not reaching an absolute majority, would bring him closer to the investiture in the second vote, if he manages to incorporate the consensus to ERC (7), Junts (7), EH Bildu (6), PNV (5) and BNG (1).
If there was a failed investiture debate at the beginning of September, a period of two months for new attempts will begin to count. If it did not go ahead in the two subsequent months, the Cortes would be dissolved in the first days of November and elections would be held 47 days later, that is, in the best of cases during the week before Christmas or already in full parties
