The second term of Emmanuel Macron, re-elected on April 24, was predicted to be complicated despite his comfortable victory over Marine Le Pen. Six months later, the gloomy predictions are coming true. An almost perfect storm threatens the Elysée tenant due to the accumulation of simultaneous crises: strikes and agitation in the street, parliamentary weakness, indiscipline in its ranks and legal problems of two figures in his government.
Absorbed for months by the war in Ukraine and the European response to the enormous geopolitical and economic challenge posed by Russian aggression, the French president is in danger of internal destabilization. Although he blames the oil companies and the unions for the strike that has caused a lack of fuel and queues at gas stations, the chaotic image that France is giving and the public anger indirectly weaken Macron and his government, accused of too much passivity. This Tuesday, a day of demonstrations and strikes in very sensitive sectors such as railways and public transport, will contribute to the feeling of lack of authority and lack of control.
The strikes and the noise in the street –very French phenomena– would have less relevance if they were not accompanied by a serious parliamentary fragility of the Government in Parliament. The Macronist party, Renaissance, has only 175 of the 577 deputies in the National Assembly. His allies in the Democratic Movement (MoDem) have 48 seats, and former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe's centre-right Horizontes have 27. But these partners do not guarantee solid loyalty. It has already been seen in several votes, even in amendments to the 2023 budgets. Nor do they all go together in Renaissance. A few days ago, 19 rebel Macronist deputies voted for an amendment to tax extraordinary dividends from companies at 35%, a tax increase that upset Macron.
In these circumstances, the Government will probably be forced, very soon, to approve the budgets by resorting to the controversial article 49-3 of the Constitution, which allows them to be carried out by decree and ignoring all the amendments presented. Although it will be legal, it will generate a lot of criticism and will make evident the precariousness in which Macron finds himself.
The use of 49-3 almost automatically triggers a motion of censure. The opposition would be mathematically in a position to win it, given the combined strength of Marine Le Pen's left and far right. It is unlikely that the clamp will work because an alternative government would be unfeasible. Le Pen said yesterday that, in principle, she would not vote on the left's motion. Curing his health, the Elysee has already warned that if a motion of censure succeeds, Macron would dissolve the Assembly and new elections would be called, a scenario full of risks and uncertainties for everyone, starting with Macron himself.
The anxieties for the president do not end there. In his team there are two important characters on the tightrope due to legal problems. One of them is Alexis Kohler, who has held the general secretary of the Elysee, a key position in the French system, since Macron became president in May 2017. Kohler, the true right arm of the head of state and one of the few first-minute collaborators who have resisted, have been prosecuted for alleged conflict of interest and could also be prosecuted for influence peddling due to their family ties with a shipping company. He is also accused, for alleged conflict of interest, the Minister of Justice, Éric Dupond-Moretti. Both have refused to resign from office and are fighting to prove their innocence.
Macron's fragility also derives from the fact that he will no longer be able to stand for re-election in 2027, that he is a president with an expiration date. 2027 may seem like a very distant horizon, but the truth is that the maneuvers between his eventual successors have already begun and that creates additional tensions in the macronista majority. Potential candidates include Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin; that of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, and former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe.
The perfect storm may take time to clear because, in addition to all the above factors, one remains with a powerful electrical charge, the pension reform project, a fundamental initiative for Macron's legacy and his ambition to transform a stagnant France. His rivals would like to turn this reform into his political tomb.
