British Conservatives are like those cartoon characters who would run off the cliff and only halfway to the ground realize what was happening to them. In their case, that they were not only on their way to losing the next elections, but also to destroying their image of prudence and breaking into multiple pieces. With three prime ministers in three months, it's not a far-fetched possibility.
In the middle of the void, they have raised their hands to their heads and reacted, to see if they save the event with a few fractures and a visit to the hospital instead of the morgue. Yesterday, Boris Johnson put an end to his comeback attempt and cleared the way for former Economy Minister Rishi Sunak, who would be elected today if his only rival, Penny Mordaunt, also leaves or does not gather the hundred signatures necessary to take the decision to the bases. of the match.
The prospect of a return of Boris Johnson had frightened Tory thinkers, because many MPs would refuse to serve in his administration, tear up their membership cards, go over to the opposition or resign their seats. Which, instead of healing the wounds, would have made the blood spurt out. But the water has not reached the river.
Sunak and Johnson, pressured by the party, met on Saturday night to see if it was possible to form a unity ticket to lead the Conservatives through the two and a half years remaining before the elections, but they did not agree. The former Finance Minister, stronger, with 130 colleagues publicly in his corner, offered Boris the Foreign Affairs portfolio, which he already held in Theresa May's time, which kept his big hands out of the economy and would have allowed him to take care of what boasts as one of his greatest achievements, the support for Ukraine.
But Johnson's notion of a triumphant return, with the laurel wreath on his head in the style of his Roman idol, the dictator Cincinnatus, was not the Foreign Office but 10 Downing Street, with its overpriced wallpaper that got him to pay a Tory patron in one of the many scandals that shook his administration. A bit like Trump, he believes that the power he had legitimately won in the 2019 elections, with an absolute majority of 80 seats, was arbitrarily usurped. And the most he offered Sunak was to be Chancellor of the Exchequer again (in place of Jeremy Hunt), with full control of the finances (or as much control as the investment funds left him…).
The possibility of Johnson's return has caused an earthquake in British politics. But after the initial shock, the tremors lost intensity as the party gradually realized what a second term for Boris would mean in the midst of an economic crisis, with the country on the verge of recession and practically intervened by the markets, 10% inflation, the pound in the doldrums, collapsed public health, Brexit in crisis, strikes on the order of the day, relations with Europe at a minimum, mistrust of Washington, serious threats of territorial fracture, the Rock-bottom productivity… A divisive figure at best, many in the party concluded that now was not the best time to forgive him and hand him back the reins.
Sunak, growing stronger, officially announced yesterday morning that he was running, which he would not have done had he not been convinced that everything is in his favour. The bases preferred Truss in the summer, but his warning that it was not the time to cut taxes because they would fuel inflation and raise interest rates has been fulfilled. He gives the impression that he knows what he is doing, and is receiving a barrage of support, including the likes of David Frost – minister and Brexit negotiator with Johnson – and Kemi Badenoch, international trade minister and figure of the modern far-right Tory. .
Johnson, convinced that the bases would give him their blessing if he passes the initial screening in the Commons, boasted that he had in his pocket the hundred signatures he needed to challenge Sunak (and Penny Mordaunt, the third in discord). But he said that despite this he was withdrawing "in the national interest" and "because it is not the time", despite "being convinced that he could have won the next elections" (modesty was never the best virtue of the). Potential followers of the former prime minister remained undecided, waiting to see them coming and studying which way the wind was blowing, fearful of committing something crazy at such a delicate moment.
For some eurosceptics, Boris was the only way to save the hard Brexit they believe in; for some legislators from the red wall (Labour ex-territories in the post-industrial north of England), it was the only hope of a geographical redistribution of wealth; for some deputies without overwhelming majorities in their constituencies, it was the only formula to save their seat.
But, on the other hand, the partygate debate would have returned, a parliamentary inquiry into whether he lied to the Commons is pending, and the breakup of the party could have led to early elections and a landslide victory for Labour, an even less appetizing scenario. As much as he said he had reformed, that he would work harder and that there are things that would never happen again, psychologists already say that personality is formed at three years old and from then on it is very difficult, if not impossible, to change it. So let's not say 58.
The political, economic and social panorama facing the country is bleak. The events of the last few weeks, with the markets' rejection of the Truss plan and the virtual intervention of finances, are the equivalent, 66 years later, of the Suez crisis, when the British believed they were still a superpower and they tried to retake the canal together with the French and Israelis. But they ran into the United States, which threatened to sink the pound if they didn't back down, which of course they did. The empire was over, London was just the capital of a medium European power, with nuclear weapons, yes, that did not find its place in the world. And he still can't find it (Brexit proves it). Under these circumstances, putting Johnson at the helm would have been like putting an elephant in charge of a Chinese antiques store, or asking an arsonist to put out a fire he started.
