The episode of abnormally high temperatures for this time of year (and with records more typical of late June or early July than April) will reach its peak this Thursday (27th) and tomorrow Friday (28th), when the 32 ºC in a large part of the center and south of the peninsula.
Thermometers will even be at 38 and 39 ºC in the Guadalquivir valley, an unknown level for these dates. The current warm episode "will be the most intense in April in the Iberian Peninsula since there are records," says the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). "We are heading towards the warmer days of this episode," warns Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the state agency. “The 38ºC that is expected in the south of the peninsula is unprecedented. We are talking about an extremely warm episode still in the month of April ”, he emphasizes.
Although, according to Aemet, "it is unlikely that it will reach 40 ºC", it would not be surprising if it happened, given the rise in thermometers. "It cannot be ruled out that at some meteorological station in the interior of Andalusia, especially in the countryside of Córdoba and Seville, 40 ºC could be reached on Friday," says the physicist and meteorologist Miguel Ángel Viñas. "The prediction model gives us 39 ºC, in all that area, but it cannot be ruled out that 40 ºC could occur at some point", adds this popularizer, who is "surprised by the earlyness of an episode of this magnitude", adds Vinas.
Since Tuesday, there have already been very high temperatures for the time of year in most of Spain. The values were between 7 and 12 degrees above normal in almost the entire Peninsula, except in the northern third. Experts predict a cascade of maximum temperature records, something that already began to be seen on Tuesday. The Córdoba airport, for example, reached 35.1 ºC, a record that exceeds the 34 ºC of the previous record, from April 2017. And the 35 ºC that were measured in Jerez de la Frontera (at its airport) exceeds 33 .6 ºC from the previous record registered in April 1997.
In the Valencian Community, temperatures exceeded 36 ºC; For example, in Xàtiva and Carcaixent, both in the province of Valencia, they reached 36.2 ºC.
Since last Monday, April 24, a very warm and dry subtropical air mass has been entering. The situation of atmospheric stability and strong insolation also contribute to reaching such high temperatures. José Miguel Viñas highlights that "in its origin, the air has gained more temperature than would be normal due to its contact with the North Atlantic Ocean", which has been showing very prominent anomalies. “And that turns a spring heat episode, which is not uncommon, into a summer extreme heat episode.”
In Córdoba the absolute maximum so far in April is 34 ºC (2017); in Seville, 36.4 ºC, and in Murcia, 37 ºC. And it is likely that now 39 ºC will be measured. It would be five degrees more.
Aemet predicts that it is possible that April 2023, driven mainly by this warm episode, will be "one of the two warmest Aprils in the historical series (1961)".
"This episode of high temperatures will be the most intense experienced in April in the Iberian Peninsula since there are records," sums up Rubén del Campo. The days that make up the period between April 25 and 30 "could be the warmest for those dates since at least 1950," he adds.
The other outstanding factor is “the lack of rain”. From April 1 to April 23, 12 liters per square meter had been collected in Spain, which represents a 75% reduction in normal rainfall. The negative record of April 1995 would be exceeded, when 23 liters per square meter fell. It now seems unlikely that that figure will be reached.
In addition, "in the next few days it will hardly rain, although during the weekend "there will be precipitation in the northern third of the peninsula." In summary: it is quite probable that April 2023 will end as the driest month in the historical series in Spain.
"We have never faced temperatures like the ones we are experiencing and are going to experience," emphasizes José Miguel Viñas, author of Our climate challenge. Viñas maintains that although "this episode is in line with global warming, we did not think that an event like this would occur."
Rubén del Campo highlights, when commenting on the possible relationship of this event with climate change, that "extreme phenomena linked to high temperatures have become more frequent and intense, and that intense heat appears earlier."
Each meteorological episode must be analyzed in detail, but assessing the "intensity and its early nature", the current one fits into what is being observed that causes climate change, let's remember".
Recently, Spain has already registered very warm situations typical of midsummer in spring. And clear examples of this are the episodes of May 2015 and 2022; both were extraordinary and exceeded 40 degrees in points in the south and east of the Peninsula.
Most likely it will exceed 32-34 ºC in the southern half of the peninsula, and that it will reach 37 ºC in the Guadalquivir valley. It cannot be ruled out that in the Guadalquivir valley, specifically in the provinces of Córdoba and Seville, it will reach 39 degrees this Thursday. It will be the warmest day of the episode overall. On Friday, the highs will continue to rise in the eastern half of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In the Guadalquivir valley, temperatures would be similar to those of Thursday. In the southern half they would be around 32-34 ºC, and it is likely that they would exceed 30-32 ºC in the Ebro valley and inland Mallorca.
On Saturday there will be a temperature drop in large areas, but the heat will still be very intense in the eastern third of the Peninsula and in the Balearic Islands.
Sunday and Monday the temperatures will still continue to drop; but in the central zone and southern half, the warm atmosphere for the season will continue. It is possible that from Tuesday the temperatures will rise again and the atmosphere will continue to be very warm in almost all of Spain during the next week.
