Spring, which will begin next Monday at 10:24 p.m. peninsular official time, is expected to be warmer than normal, especially in the east of the peninsula and in the archipelagos, after a winter that was also mild and without any cold wave, and that ends with a long-term drought.
The weather forecast (April, May and June) will have temperatures around the normal average for this time of year or warmer than normal, especially in the east of the Peninsula and the archipelagos, according to Estrella Gutiérrez, Aement meteorologist.
Regarding rainfall, the most probable scenario is that of a spring with rainfall around the normal average, although it could have a rainier character than normal on the Atlantic slope (that is, a good part of the west and central area of the Peninsula) and drier than normal on the Mediterranean and Balearic slopes.
For their part, the first predictions available for the summer of 2023 point to temperatures, once again, above the normal average as the most probable scenario.
“Although it is still early to specify, it could be a hot summer and, together with the drought, especially in the East, we may have a difficult summer in terms of fires; we could have high fire rates if this heat is combined with a dry plant mass; Let's hope not”, says Rubén del Campo, Aemet spokesman.
This spring season, which will last 92 days, to end on June 21 with summer, has a usual average temperature of about 13.6 ºC and with values that in the southwest of the peninsula usually exceed 16 C, in the northern sub-plateau in around 10 degrees and in Cantabrian areas between 12 and 14 degrees.
Winter has been on the whole warm and humid. It has been the tenth warmest winter since the beginning of the series in 1961 and at this point the Aemet spokesman, Rubén del Campo, has highlighted that it is "the first time that five consecutive winters have been classified as warm or very warm". fifth warmest in the 21st century.
As a characteristic, the spokesman recalled that this winter has been "very influenced by December", extremely warm, the warmest in the historical series (2.8 ºC), while January, on the other hand, was normal in terms of temperatures and February had slightly below average temperatures.
As for rainfall, it has been slightly humid.
Throughout the series, there have been thirty winters drier and thirty one wetter than 2022-2023.
The average precipitation value over mainland Spain was 194.5 mm, a value that represents 103% of the normal value for the quarter in the reference period 1991-2020.
The month of December was very humid, January was normal, while February was very dry in the country as a whole.
Meteorologists do not have a concrete forecast about what can happen at Easter (the week of April 6 and 7, Thursday and Good Friday), because "there are no signs of what can happen."
This year the Saint falls in a spring period, dates that statistically are characterized by great changes.
“We can find ourselves with weather in which in some regions it has been cool and in others it has been warm. And it is typical for fronts with showers or a storm to arrive, but it can alternate with sunny weather," says Ricardo Torrijo, a meteorologist from Aemet's operational area.
“It is a very variable time. There can be a lot of variety from one day to the next, from one area to another and from one year to the next,” he adds.
