Two factors stand out above the others when it comes to explaining why Madrid and Zaragoza fell in 2019 to the conservative bloc while Valencia and Seville resisted the deployment of right-wing forces. The first of these factors was the emergence of Vox, which raised an orphan vote of the more radical right that had stayed at home in the elections of 2015. Four years later, voters found in the far right a brand which was clearly in tune with his thinking, without the visible corruption or the "complexes" that "the cowardly right wing" of the Popular Party had exhibited. The second decisive factor was the division of the left, whose fragmentation led it to defeat even in capitals where it won more votes than the right.
MADRID
A house apart
The defeat of the left in the Spanish capital in the municipal elections of 2019 was unappealable. He lost 25,000 votes and retreated in all the districts, including those that, due to his social composition, should have been more favorable to him. And this outcome forces us to introduce a third factor into the equation of defeat: a management that did not tune in to the concerns of its potential voters. The division of the left also contributed to the defeat, true, but the aggressive mobilization of the ultra-conservative vote riding on Vox weighed even more. The overall balance of the three right-wing parties was translated into almost 43,000 more votes than in 2015. And with percentages of conservative votes above 70% in some districts – an unheard of share in other capitals –, the electoral profile of Madrid evidence an aggressive right-wing.
SEVILLA
Intensive helpful vote
The left retained Sevilla in 2019 and even increased its advantage from four years ago because it carried out an intensive exercise of useful voting. Not only did he capitalize on the management, with progress in districts of different signs, but he also expanded the electoral quota against a right-wing party that barely grew compared to 2015 (around one point). But beyond the almost ten point advantage that the PSOE and Andavant Andalusia gained over the conservative bloc, the determining factor was the concentration of the left vote in two viable brands, which made it possible to profit until the last vote and translate it into a clear majority of councillors. Four years ago, more than 13,000 left-wing ballots were left without representation. And the next 28-M, with the radical left once again divided, the phenomenon could be repeated, although now with lethal consequences. Finally, it is worth noting the progress of the right in low-income districts, once again on the back of Vox.
ZARAGOZA
The suicidal dispersion
Four years ago, the Aragonese capital symbolized the failure of new politics and activism when facing the tasks of government. The force that won the mayor's office in 2015, Saragossa en Comú, not only carried out a management that was not valued by the public, but also failed to unite the forces of the alternative left, which presented themselves divided. The result of this double failure was that the ruling formation fell from second to fourth position and the dispersion of the radical left vote left without representation more than 15,000 voters of this sign (who remained less than of four tenths of entering the distribution of councilors of the Consistory). The resulting paradox is that the right-wing formations, despite the fact that they got fewer votes, won the mayor's office.
VALENCIA
On the razor's edge
The mayoralty of Valencia was decided in 2019 by just one tenth of an advantage. The conservative forces (Partit Popular, Ciutadans and Vox) added up to 46.6%, and those on the left obtained a representation of 46.7%. The popular vote reveals, however, that the advantage of the left was wider: Compromís, PSOE and Podemos added up to 51% of the votes. But, just as it had happened four years before, the dispersion of the alternative left vote left some formations of this sign without representation because they did not reach the 5% bar. In 2015 it was Esquerra Unida (almost 20,000 votes and zero councilors with only three tenths of a vote to obtain representation), and in 2019 it was Podemos' 16,000 ballots (in this case, eight tenths of a vote to enter the distribution of councilors ). On 28-M, and for the third time, this dispersion will be repeated. Not everyone learns from mistakes. And the tenth advantage of 2019 was too narrow a margin to take risks again. For this reason, if the right conquers the City Council of Valencia, it will probably be because the division of the left will have given it away.
