The current month looks set to become the hottest July on record. Since May, the global average sea surface temperature has been well above values previously observed for this time of year, which has also contributed to this exceptional period. The succession of records has scientists thinking that the planet is heading into "uncharted territory".
The Copernicus climate change service considers that "it is very likely" that this month will be "the hottest July" on record so far and that it will also be "the hottest month on record". All this comes after June was also considered the hottest June.
The global average surface air temperature during the first 23 days of July 2023 was 16.95°C. It is a figure that is well above the 16.63°C recorded for the entire month of July 2019, which has so far been listed as the warmest July on record.
"We don't have to wait until the end of the month to find out. Unless there is a mini-ice age in the next few days, July 2023 will break records in all areas,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres when he heard the warming data.
The new evidence is overwhelming. The first three weeks of July (July 3 to 23) have been the hottest on record. If you compare the average temperature for the first 23 days of July with the same average for all Julys since 1940, July 2023 clearly stands out as the warmest month on record.
All this happens when on July 6 the average daily air temperature on the surface of the planet exceeded the record set until now, from August 2016, and reached 17.08ºC. It became the hottest day ever recorded.
"It is unlikely that the record for the month of July is an isolated event", says Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus climate change service, since his forecasts indicate that in the medium and long term "it is likely that temperatures in the land areas are well above average” and that the series of climatology measurements for this time of year are exceeded. "Emissions caused by man are, ultimately, the main driver of rising temperatures," recalls Carlo Buontempo.
Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), believes that the new data reinforce that the "need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is more urgent than ever", since "climate action does not it is a luxury, but an obligation".
The extreme temperatures recorded in the Northern Hemisphere have been the fuel for heat waves, experienced in much of North America, Asia and Europe, and forest fires in countries such as Canada and Greece, as well as in other areas of the Mediterranean. Climate change and the effects of El Niño (a cyclical warming phenomenon driven in the Equatorial Pacific with an impact on the entire planet) are pointed out as the main culprits.
A particularly worrying new data offered yesterday is that during the first and third week of July the global average temperature temporarily exceeded the threshold of 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level. This does not necessarily mean that the increase of 1.5º C set in the Paris Agreement as a target to slow the rise in temperatures will be permanently exceeded, since this pact refers to warming long term for many years. This, in turn, supports another WMO thesis: there is a 66% chance that at least one of the five years will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.
"For many parts of North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, it's a cruel summer. For the whole planet, it's a disaster. And for scientists, it's unequivocal: humans are to blame. All of this is fully consistent with the predictions and repeated warnings. The only surprise is the speed of change", added António Guterres.
Warming is also seen in the oceans. Daily temperatures in the surface layers of the seas outside the polar zones have remained at record values for the time of year since April 2023. And since mid-May, these temperatures have increased to unprecedented levels for the time of year. On July 19, the daily value reached 20.94 °C, just 0.01 °C below the highest recorded value on March 29, 2016 (20.95 °C).
Scientists are particularly alert to the heat in the North Atlantic. "We have never had a marine heat wave in this area of the Atlantic. I didn't expect it", said last week Daniela Schmidt, professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol (United Kingdom). In June, temperatures on the coast of Ireland were between 4 and 5º C above average.
China set a new national temperature record of 52.2°C on July 16 (in Turpan, Xinjiang Province), according to the China Meteorological Administration. In contrast, the temperature record for continental Europe of 48.8°C, measured in Sicily on August 11, 2021, was not broken during the July heat waves, according to provisional information.
Sea ice loss is a clear new trend in Antarctica. The area covered by sea ice in Antarctica is at an all-time low in July.
