Slightly more than a million Spaniards abroad from twelve communities will automatically receive the documentation to vote in their autonomous communities in May, which has not happened since 2007. After the repeal of the "vote rogado" that from of 2011 drastically reduced participation, they are the ones who will be able to launch the new system. This represents a return to the past, although with greater facilities for sending the ballots to Spain and the obligation to attach an identification document as an anti-fraud guarantee.
There are 1,051,434 expatriates with the right to vote in the autonomous communities of the twelve communities that will vote on May 28, according to the census closed on February 1. The final figure should only vary slightly. They represent 46% of the 2.3 million Spanish voters abroad. And it is that among the five communities that do not vote are Galicia, with half a million voters, Catalonia and Andalusia, both with just over a quarter of a million.
The unprecedented absence of Castilla y León and the reincorporation of Valencia, which in 2019 voted in April with the generals, make it difficult to estimate the volume of foreign ballots for 28-M. The last precedents prior to the requested vote showed participations greater than 20%. They would now give some 200,000 votes, more than triple four years ago.
The census has doubled, which tends to reduce participation, but it is also assumed that there is a greater desire to vote, and there are greater facilities, because if the delivery of ballot papers from Spain is delayed, or even does not arrive, the voter can download them online or pick them up at the ballot deposit centers, which are going to be expanded substantially. In any case, even with around 15% participation, the volume of votes would more than double that of four years ago.
The impact on the results is even more unpredictable. Contrary to popular belief, the weight of the foreign census in the total does not matter as much. It influences everything that happens in the scrutiny within Spain, where 90 and a lot of percent of the votes are cast. If the differences are big inside, the outside doesn't matter. If they are small, there may even be changes with a handful of ballots. In fact, the only case of determined governance abroad, that of Asturias in 2012, was already with a requested vote.
A priori, foreign suffrage would be key in the Canary Islands, due to the attempt by the PP and the Canary Islands Coalition to evict the PSOE. There, La Gomera has 38% of voters outside, La Palma, 26% and El Hierro, 22%. But even the diaspora may have some ability to influence Madrid in Díaz Ayuso's assault on the absolute majority. Or, for example, in Valencia, with its only 3.3% foreign census, if the result were very close.
Before the pleaded vote, when sacks were trafficked, votes were sold by weight, dead people participated and foreign governments intervened, the results depended on which party was in power, which often swept. With the requested vote, on the other hand, the results differed less from those within Spain, although with their own dynamics, as when Podemos and its allies won. It was a very European stage, because from America the deadlines made it almost impossible to participate.
Now the vote of America returns with renewed strength, because, due to the nationalizations of descendants of emigrants, it is where in these sixteen years the census has grown the most, which as a whole rose from 1.1 million to 2.3 and in the communities of 28-M, from 460,521 to those 1,051,434 in 2023. These are very high figures, the result of the so forgotten and crucial reform of 1995, when Spain was one of the first countries in the world to implement official registration abroad . Thus, when the expatriate signs up for a consulate, they are incorporated into the electoral roll, despite the fact that they usually had to request it, even with renewals.
The 28-M will be a test for the generals, to see how the expatriates react and the interest of the parties. And also to know if the fraud returns. Compared to 2007, there is the novelty of having to include a photocopy of the DNI or a similar document. It was only used before the requested vote in 2009 and 2010 in some autonomies and produced a decrease in irregularities and participation. The risk will increase when there are already several elections and there may be a collection of documents.
The foreign vote returns, without request, with a nuanced return model to the past, a huge census and while only 3 out of 10 Spaniards abroad were born in Spain.
