The Basque political scene is going through a period of change, after years of stability and predictability. The first obvious manifestation has to do with the change of the main protagonists of Basque politics, who in a matter of weeks will begin to lead the generational transition. Probably, the Basque elections in the spring, in addition, will lead to a closer correlation of forces within the struggle between the PNB and EH Bildu, and thirdly, it is necessary to see if the current strategy of alliances that today unites Jeltzales and socialists split, after the precedent of the censure motion in Pamplona, or strengthen after the elections.
Basque citizens still do not know when they will be called to the polls and the exact date will not be revealed at least until the internal process for the proclamation of a candidate for the PNB is finished. Imanol Pradales, already in the second round of the process and as the only candidate, will be proclaimed by the national assembly of his party on January 27. From here, the lehendakari, Iñigo Urkullu, who is the one to whom this power corresponds, will take the decision together with the party and reveal the final decision on the election date.
It is most likely that they will be held in the second half of April or at the beginning of May, with April 21 as the most likely date. The Jeltzales want to separate the Basque elections from the elections to the European Parliament in June, highly conditioned by the polarization between the PSOE and the PP, and proposed, at least from the popular ranks, as "a second round of 23-J", in words of Cuca Gamarra. Likewise, the PNB needs time to publicize its candidate, who is unknown outside of Bizkaia, and wishes to send a powerful message about his capacity in terms of management at the head of the main Basque institutions and his activity in the Basque Parliament and the Congress, fronts in which the activity has intensified.
Circumstances force the Basque elections to be placed midway between two battles strongly influenced by the PSOE-PP struggle. In the Basque case, obviously, the main focus will be on the pulse delivered by Imanol Pradales and, on behalf of Bildu, Pello Otxandiano, representatives of two formations that today hold 69% of the parliamentary representation; however, socialists and populists will also face Euskadi, both looking towards Madrid and because of what is at stake there.
In the case of the Socialists, the last Basque Sociometer gave them a slight increase, going from the current 10 seats to 11. They would remain the third force, although far from the 29 seats that, according to this survey, the PNB (today has 31) and Bildu's 25 (today 21). The result of Eneko Andueza's candidacy, in any case, would be satisfactory if it allows them to grow and continue to be key in Basque governance, two objectives that would be met according to the Sociometer and which would mean a little support before the European ones.
The PP, for its part, would go from 6 to 7 seats, according to the Sociometer, and with Javier de Andrés, it would become the fourth force in the Basque Parliament, in the face of a presumed new electoral stumble from the space of Podem and Sumar, that if presented separately they would disappear directly. Looking towards Madrid and towards the Europeans, the populists could claim this growth, although with 7 seats out of 75 in a chamber where they came to hold 19 seats, they will hardly be able to stand up.
At this point, it is worth attending to a plausible hypothesis that will be one of the keys to follow in the run-up to the election. It is about the possibility that the PNB and the PSE will not add an absolute majority, so that they could need the support of the PP. The Basque Sociometer places the sum of the PNB and the PSE at 40 seats, two above the absolute majority (38). However, in the event that they do not reach this threshold, the Basque political board would experience a loss of very relevant consequences.
The PP would go from being a very secondary player in politics in the Basque Country to becoming a key to guaranteeing governability. The PNB would no longer have the sole support of the Socialists, with whom it governs the main Basque institutions, and would be forced to look, first of all, towards the popular ones, bearing in mind that Bildu and the Podem-Sumar space, if presented together, they would not lend themselves to guaranteeing governability in these terms.
The paradigm of a minority government between Jeltzales and socialists with occasional support from the PP would mean in the short and medium term a tremendous wear and tear on the PNB from which Bildu would benefit, focused on cooking up a change without haste focused on wearing down the rival in beat and with a component of generational change in Basque society.
From the PSE, however, there is speculation with the possibility that, in case of not reaching the sum of 38, the Jeltzales could look towards Bildu, looking for a loose majority which in practice would mean a blow to the rudder in Basque politics and that would fuel the national question. If this happened, in any case, it would place the territorial debate within very limited parameters. Today, according to the same Basque Sociometer, only 17% of PNB voters are openly pro-independence (a further 40% would support this option depending on the circumstances), while in the case of Bildu they are 54% (a 37 % more depending on the circumstances).
The possibility of the PNB and the PSE gaining an absolute majority in the spring elections is, therefore, a determining aspect, the main one to attend to beyond the possibility of being overtaken by Bildu, a hypothesis that seems improbable. The difference between the two main formations of Basque politics is today 10 seats, and the latest Basque Sociometer estimates a distance of 4 in the spring elections. The correlation of forces will in all probability be equalized, but the Jeltzales have many options to maintain the first position, their priority objective, followed by the extremely important need to reach the 38 seats together with the PSE. It will be the best guarantee for the PNB that the alliance with the socialists can be prolonged.
The Basque nationalists cling to this possibility, which would give them room to recover from the wear and tear shown by the last two polls and to rebuild. After the Basque elections, it will be time for a handover at the head of the PNB, with the more than likely departure of Andoni Ortuzar from the presidency of the EBB. Itxaso Atutxa, president of the party in Bizkaia, is the best positioned to take the witness stand and complete the generational relay.
The PNB avoids talking about cycle change, a concept it associates with a change of government which is certainly not the most likely option. It is clear, however, that the winds of change are blowing in the Basque political horizon and that it is heading for a very different phase from that of the previous decade. The Jeltzales were then the ones who best knew how to adapt to the winds that blew after the end of ETA. Now, it is necessary to see who takes the lead in the new scenario that opens.
The Basque elections
