Illa prevails but has to come to an agreement with independence, which retreats

The Socialists clearly win the elections in Catalonia.

Oliver Thansan
Oliver Thansan
12 May 2024 Sunday 17:38
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Illa prevails but has to come to an agreement with independence, which retreats

The Socialists clearly win the elections in Catalonia. The sum of the pro-independence parties no longer reaches the absolute majority despite Junts' moderate push due to the overthrow of ERC. Ladreta is gaining ground with a Popular Party that is clearly on the rise in Catalonia while Vox is resisting.

A bird's-eye view of what happened on May 12 points to a clear conservative turn in Catalan politics. The clear victory of the Socialist Party masks the evidence. Salvador Illa has won the elections in Catalonia with a significant advantage, climbing up to 42 deputies, nine more than in 2021.

Illa, who appeared late at night, announced that his intention is, as soon as the Parliament is established, to present his candidacy for the investiture of the presidency of the Generalitat even if he does not have the votes secured to get it

For the socialist leader, the good result he obtained yesterday is due to the policy undertaken from Moncloa by the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, and he highlighted it in his speech.

The result of the PSC equals the socialist victory in 2003, but then the PSC won in votes, but not in seats, as has happened this time. That victory gave the presidency of the Generalitat to PasqualMaragall thanks to the tripartite agreement, a combination that, at least arithmetically, would be possible again now, given that the PSC, ERC and the commons add up to just the absolute majority of the Chamber , 68 seats.

It doesn't seem easy for that to happen. Pere Aragonès made it clear at night that Esquerra is going to the opposition, where, he assured in the acceptance of defeat speech, the voters have placed him.

On the contrary, Carles Puigdemont, at the headquarters in Algiers, gave a different reading of the results and pointed to the possibility of strengthening the alliances with Esquerra, perhaps with the prospect of a minority government, which would only be possible if Salvador Illa once again ceded the presidency of the Generalitat to the pro-independence parties. Puigdemont's message was clearly aimed at Moncloa. It was the reminder that the pro-independence parties are a fundamental part of the majority that supports the Sánchez Government.

An invitation that disregards the objective fact that the sum of pro-independence forces lost the absolute majority on Sunday that they did obtain four years ago due, above all, to the fall of Esquerra Republicana, which lost 13 deputies, and the CUP , from the parliamentary group from which 5 representatives are suspended. All pro-independence, including the vote that has been left out of Parliament, adds up to 43% since Sunday.

The great losses of Aragonès' party - which has left behind more than 178,000 votes - are not compensated by Junts' good result. Carles Puigdemont's party manages to increase its representation in the Parliament of Catalonia by four seats, but does not manage to come close to the result of the PSC. Together they have obtained 104,000 more votes than in 2021.

Independence is, according to the results, much more conservative since May 12. And even more if you add Aliança Catalana, the party of Sílvia Orriols, the mayor of Ripoll, who has entered Parliament with two deputies.

The sum of the four pro-independence forces obtains 61 deputies, seven short of the absolute majority in Parliament. In the outgoing legislature, there were 74 deputies.

The commons of Jéssica Albiach also do not come out well in Sunday's test and lose two deputies. Yolanda Díazno's Sumar project succeeds in uprooting, not even in Catalonia, the land of promise where she hoped to recover from the bad results of Galicia and the Basque Country.

The PP gets a very good result and, in fact, is the party that grows the most, with seven percentage points more that allow it to add 12 deputies to the three it had in 2021. In this way, it is only four deputies from the its best result, recorded in 2012 before Ciutadans appeared, the party that on Sunday was literally erased from the Catalan political map after losing 136,000 votes along the way. The Animalist Party, Pacma, eternal aspirant to enter the Catalan Chamber, has been left in front of Ciutadans.

With this result, the Popular Party of Alberto Núñez Feijóo achieves its goal, surpassing Vox, which, despite this, has resisted the hostile opa of the PPi, maintaining the 11 deputies it complained about in the previous legislature.

It is not good news for the Popular Party, which, although it is true that it has overtaken Santiago Abascal's party, has not succeeded in decimating it, and this was also its objective.

The result of these elections does not clarify the scenario for the next electoral season, the European elections that will be held in four weeks. In reality, everything has changed, but at the same time everything remains where it was.