More than 1.6 million young people have today for the first time the opportunity to vote in a general election and, contrary to the mantra that runs through social networks, they will not be choosing the far-right ballot en masse. At the very least, this thesis is agreed by the experts and the latest pre-election survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) in June, which places Santiago Abascal's party only in fourth place in the voting preference among those aged between 18 and 24, with 13%, behind the PSOE (22.8%), PP (19.5%) and even Sumar (14.9%).
Of course, in this age group Vox has its highest percentage of voters. It is also true, or so say the sociological surveys, that the youngest age group is the one that was least determined to vote at the start of the campaign, and this can be a volcano of surprises: in June it was just 46%, compared to 77% or 78% of the two immediately preceding.
"Young people are interested in politics. What they don't find is a story in the existing parties", says Ernesto Pascual, PhD in Political Science and professor at the Open University of Catalonia (UOC). Hence, in part, that it is the electoral sector that gives the most importance to the program, with 49%, above factors such as the candidate or the vote against, according to the latest CIS flash survey of July 17. A report by the Youth Council published on July 11 reinforces this idea. 89% of young people aged 14 to 34 say they are interested in politics. "Very", 55%; "a little", 34%.
But a majority of 59% do not like the current system, compared to 41% who feel "a little" or "a lot" represented.
The same report shows that the issues that most interest them, in that order, are housing, working conditions, mental health – which they have suffered particularly with the pandemic – and the climate crisis. "The desire of young people is for problems to be solved, not to inherit them. They are radically against politicking and consider that the political game today is poor, without thorough debates on the issues that are important to them. They don't want to inherit this whole deteriorated system - reflects Xavier Martínez Celorrio, professor of Sociology at the University of Barcelona (UB) - and that's why they would like a more participatory and creative policy, and with experiences and experiences of good practices".
Distrust in politics is one of the factors that can lead to think that Vox will grow among young people, and of course among those who are making their debut at the polls. "The youth vote in Vox captures a part of abstentionism, because it is the most anti-political vote - Martínez Celorrio opines - but if it has been exaggerated it is because it is an unprecedented phenomenon that has surprised us all. It is an identity vote of masculinity, heterosexual and anti-feminist, which highlights masculinist pride in the face of what is politically correct, often with a background of a lot of ignorance, and this cocktail draws our attention."
Disinterest in the system (not politics) has another variable, in which Martínez Celorrio and Pascual agree, and it is the frustration in relation to the moment of change announced on 15-M (it was 2011), and which "has not met the expectations generated", according to the first of the two. "It was a great mobilization of young people, who shouted that "they don't represent us". This was directed against the verticality of traditional parties. Young people prefer more horizontal structures, it's what they learn at school and university, where issues are discussed and decided in this area, and the first Podemos was born in this scheme, assembly and as a new way of doing politics, but as soon as they start to institutionalize and transform into a vertical party, disinterest begins", analyzes Pascual.
Roger Soler i Martí, professor of Political Science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona and researcher at the Institute of Government and Public Policy, adds that "young people have a tendency to look for new electoral spaces and new parties tend to connect better than traditional ones, but in the case of Vox this is not the case, because in many of the big issues on the political agenda, such as climate change or feminism, which are important for new generations, their speech is very old and therefore does not have as much connection with they It's an old game."
"Young people are always anti-establishment and what they see in Voxés is anti-conformism, a transformative and revolutionary party. Like the JONS or the communist youths in their time", recalls Pascual. "When it is detected that there will be a change in political trend, it is attributed to the new voters, and this is not always the case. We don't really detect a shift to the right of the youth vote", elaborates Soler i Martí.
CIS data show that almost 51% of younger voters have a "very bad opinion" of Santiago Abascal, given that it is 18.7% in the case of Yolanda Díaz. At the other extreme, those who have a "very good opinion" of Díaz and Abascal are, respectively, 3.3% and 5.7%.
"The left has more problems recruiting than before: they have lost the great space for political socialization that was the factory, and then the family; you learned from your father, that he was a worker just as you would be later... this has been blurred, because it is likely that your life will not follow the same path as that of your parents, and because of globalization and the delocalization of large work centers, which has benefited the right and neoliberalism", analyzes Pascual.
"Vox's is a bubble fueled by the networks", says Martínez Celorrio. 41.5% of 18- to 24-year-olds say that they get information about political affairs (including the campaign) primarily through social networks, a figure that drops to 32% in the next group, 25- to 34-year-olds, according to the CIS. The report of the Youth Council points in the same direction. 46% of young people have consumed political content on Tiktok in the last week. Not from parties (only 9%), but from "people who talk about politics" (37%). The younger they are, the more content they consume from influencers. Between 14 and 20 years old, 50% reported this.
" Vox is very skilled in the use of social networks and dirty techniques of manipulation, they have studied in the American institutions of Steve Bannon's orbit. They use the whole recipe of propaganda to discredit the left. They are destroying the truth, it is easy when there is a multiplicity of channels without control. They want a low-profile democracy", laments Martínez Celorrio. "Let's not forget that the citizenship education subject was eliminated by Rajoy. We have structural deficiencies in the education system in subjects such as history, tolerance or poverty. The new propaganda takes advantage of forgetfulness and ignorance, and the low role of public schools in terms of training critical citizens", concludes the UB expert.
