The easy headline would have been "Feijóo can be president". But we already put it in 2017 in Expansión: "Sánchez can be president" (23/V/2017), when we explained the motion of censure and the electoral progress a year earlier. Two years ago, as you know, emulating the same chess of that salmon page, we wrote in this war room the piece "Yolanda Díaz can be president" (15/XI/2021). His candidacy was an essential condition for the reissue of the coalition. And here is the vice-president leading the political mathematics in a hypothetical Addition with engine Podemos (henceforth SMP) as a third force and also going up to the raw and cold data of the past CIS. When a scenario is projected, it is not about getting it right, but about making things happen or preventing them from happening.
Since it is not our style to repeat, today we will explore a new angle: how is it that the favorite, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is suddenly not president? Even winning the general election. Look at the figures from a month ago: PP, 129; PSOE, 97; Vox, 45, and UP, 29. The right without an absolute majority. Today, on the contrary, with a competition of three lefts against two rights: PP, 135; PSOE, 95; Vox, 46; Sumar, 24, and Podemos, 9. The irruption of Sumar alone, alert, ensures the absolute majority for PP and Vox with 181 deputies. The Belgian jurist, Víctor D'Hondt, smiles at the fragmentation and makes history rhyme but the other way around in 2019. It must be clear: whoever is promoting the front so that Sumar does not agree with Podemos is giving away the government to Feijóo.
What if there was already an SMP? The PP would obtain 129; the PSOE, 85; SMP, 57, and Vox, 38. The left would start its campaign in re-election figures, and SMP could progress to 65 seats (maximum 78), depending on whether the Socialists shoot in the race or do not exceed 90 depending on seat 28- M. The local ones will be technically won by the PP in the popular vote, with a 3 point difference over the PSOE. It would not be a socialist undoing, but a usual exchange of positions. Spain today is a head or cross game.
The symbolic places will therefore determine the bottom lines: in Seville the PSOE is strong, but PP and Vox are one councilor away from adding; in Valencia, PP and Vox have the majority today, but Compromís and the left are close to revalidating; and in Barcelona? No one doubts anymore that Jaume Collboni is the favorite, as we indicated seven months ago (17/X/2022). You only need to finish first or second to forge alliances and be mayor. But, carefully, he must mark distances as soon as possible with Xavier Trias. Because? Both can be in the 10 councilors; Ada Colau, in 8-9, and Ernest Maragall, from ERC, also in 8-9. Do you know who the City Council would decide under these conditions? The 3-4 councilors of Daniel Sirera of the Catalan PP. Today CUP and Vox are out. Giving Feijóo, then, the ability to be decisive. Soaking in this sauce, imagine the national debate: Feijóo would give Barcelona to Sánchez. Don't forget that Colau lost in 2019 and that she is mayor because of the votes of Manuel Valls. And who did Trias mayor for the first time in 2011? The PP Barcelona always offers surprises. Believe it or not.
Therefore, it is clear that Feijóo may not be president. Living only on anti-sanchism - like others before anti-Marianism or Aznaritat -, without building a movement in favor of your candidacy, is extremely dangerous. Repeal Sanchism this 28-M is paying for a cloudy plebiscite. They are local, not general. And there are too many balls that could hit the crossbar that night. Aragon, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are candidates for the pole for the PP. Surprisingly, the Canary Islands (depending on whether Vox enters) and the Valencian Community are in goal for the blues. The Galician school José Manuel Romay Beccaría says that Moncloa is won without making mistakes. However, since the avant-garde of 15-M and the political Bauhaus of 2014, the presidency is for what it takes. Madrid is the Eduardo Dato bridge in Historias del Kronen with MAR below watching in case you fall. Sooner or later you will be hanging from this bridge, it is hopeless, because Madrid is life or death. Either you attack or they invest you politically. To win Moncloa it is as important to know who you are not as to become who you are. While the great Australian Blonde (AB) play and we all sing C hup, chup .
