P edro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have taken the elections of 28-M as the first round of the general elections at the end of the year. It is evident that the two leaders are throwing themselves into the campaign beyond the mere support of their municipal or regional candidates. Is it true, therefore, that whoever wins in three weeks will win the Moncloa prize in a few months?
This thesis has a more or less statistical basis. Local particularities decant results, but the review of what happened at the polls in the last 40 years reflects that in these elections underlying currents or changes in political hegemony emerge. Almost every time that one of these two formations has won the number of votes in some municipal and autonomic ones, after a few months it has achieved the presidency of the Government. As in all the rules, there are exceptions: in May 2007 the PP won in votes by very little (the result was so fair that the PSOE won in councillors) and in the 2008 general elections the Socialists won by the minimum.
Sánchez already launched his own electoral campaign against Feijóo from the moment he was elected and made the PP rise in the polls. For a year, the Prime Minister has worked hard to dismantle the image of a serious manager and moderate politician that he had forged as a Galician leader. He did it above all through control sessions in the Senate, which he turned into a merciless duel. For the PSOE, it was necessary to stop any possible consolidation of the new rival after the period of tranquility provided by Pablo Casado and that has been applied for months. The second part of the socialist campaign consists of taking the initiative from the Council of Ministers. The announcements and the approval of measures on housing or youth are part of that plan, which will continue like this almost until election day.
The results of 28-M can be read in number of votes and in symbolic seats lost or won. In this second aspect, the PSOE runs more risks, since it has nine autonomies that it must preserve at all costs. The risk is concentrated in the Valencian Community, Aragon, the Balearic Islands and Castilla-La Mancha, including Extremadura. In return, Sánchez can compensate for any loss if he takes over the municipalities of Seville and Barcelona. The symbolism is relevant, but the power is more so. Losing strongholds means a less involved party, with more nervous territorial leaders and reluctant to wrap up the leader without fissures.
Feijóo also plays it in these elections. The president of the PP has already made it clear that he is given only one opportunity to reach Moncloa. Otherwise, he will leave the presidency of the party. In fact, some media appendages disenchanted with his mood are already sending him messages to that effect. The political hotbed in Madrid, especially the socialist, has already been quick to interpret these announcements as the sign of an imminent fall from grace for Feijóo at the head of the party. According to this theory, if the PP achieves a mediocre result on March 28, but Isabel Díaz Ayuso wins an absolute majority in the Community of Madrid, the relay would be sung for the December general elections. It would be a duel between Sanchismo and Ayusismo.
The speculations about a first round with Feijóo and a second with Ayuso have skyrocketed as a result of the show starring the Madrid president at the Dos de Mayo party. While Feijóo insists that she wants to "repeal sanchismo", Ayuso conveyed the message that only she is capable of stopping her feet and standing up to sanchismo, represented in the veto, even physical, to the Minister of the Presidency, Félix Bolaños, in the rostrum of authorities. The Socialists believe that appeals to stop Ayusismo do not work in Madrid, but they would be very profitable in the periphery.
Each voter knows if this 28-M chooses one ballot or another based on the management of their mayor or the initials, but experience indicates that, perhaps unconsciously, voters now set the course that leads to Moncloa
