The disagreements between the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the chief of staff of the armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhni, may end in a storm in a teapot, but it occurs at the worst time, in the second winter of the Russian invasion, without any progress on the land front since October 2022 and with the allies affected by a certain variant of war fatigue that puts military aid at risk.
The Center for Combating Disinformation, which depends on the National Security Council, launched a warning last Thursday according to which “foreign media are preparing a disinformation campaign against the top leaders of the State” with the aim of “undermining the political leadership.” -military of Ukraine” and “divide Ukrainian society.” It sounds childish, but war propaganda is rarely sophisticated. The ad refers to English-speaking journalists who worked in Moscow during Vladimir Putin's first term, which coincides with Simon Shuster and his article published in Time on October 30, in which he describes a gloomy Zelensky, who does not listen. to whom he should, who is angry with his allies and who faces serious corruption problems, while discouragement spreads among officials.
It was just afterwards that General Zaluzhni revealed his concerns to The Economist, thus breaking a military vow of silence. By saying that the war was reaching a stalemate, contradicting the president's version of him, he precipitated not only the discrepancies between them but also the hypothesis that Zaluzhni would one day become Zelensky's political rival. .
The general, placed at the head of the General Staff by Zelensky in 2021, was the architect of the defense of Kyiv in anticipation of the Russian invasion and is a popular hero. He is supported by NATO (he attended, unusually, the last meeting of Ukraine's allies in Ramstein, Germany) and is respected by the major American media. During an unexpected visit to Kyiv by Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin on November 20, the general was apparently dispatched at the pleasure and expense of the president. Almost immediately, in an interview with the British newspaper The Sun, Zelensky responded by saying that the military should not get involved in politics.
Ukrainskaya Pravda has aired the “war” between the politician and the military, providing details. The president would have bypassed Zaluzhni by dispatching directly with the head of the air force, Mikola Oleshchuk, and with the prestigious General Olexánder Sirski, head of the Army, with whom he was recently photographed studying some plans together. At the same time, three commanders close to Zaluzhni, such as the head of military health, Tetiana Ostashchenko, have been dismissed.
Ukraine could hold elections on March 31, 2024 despite martial law and war (democracy is obligatory), and Zelensky and his entourage fear a Zaluzhni who, however, has not expressed political ambitions nor is he a media figure, according to Ukrainskaya. Pravda, which cites an electoral poll in which Zelensky would obtain 47% in the first round today, and Zaluzhni, 30%. In the second round, Zelensky would narrowly surpass the general: 42% to 40%.
For researcher Konstantin Skorkin, originally from Donbass, at the heart of the scuffle what is being aired are rather the responsibilities for the stagnation of the war and the inability – confessed by Zaluzhni, to Zelensky's greater indignation – to move forward with the means available to the army. Zaluzhni, on the other hand, was called to testify in an investigation by the security services, the SBU, into the fall of Kherson province at the beginning of the Russian invasion.
Of course, all this would not happen if the June counteroffensive had gone moderately well. But it was not like that, due to various factors, internal and external. Among the first, it is still not clear among military analysts why the Ukrainians got caught up in the bloody battle of Bakhmut and dedicated their best-prepared forces to it when the enclave was not a capital (as has been demonstrated after the Russians occupied it), and could having retreated to more favorable defensive positions. A decision that, at least in theory, could respond more to current political criteria than military ones, and which ended up allowing the Russians to prepare to thwart the counteroffensive.
The political struggle in Ukraine has been one of the country's big problems since its independence in 1991, and that does not seem to have changed with the war. Thus, there has been talk of Zaluzhni's dismissal... But, it is said, the presidency considers that this would precisely facilitate his electoral candidacy.
