Although he was dying of brain cancer, Tu Changwang had one last thing to say. The Chinese meteorologist had noticed that the weather was getting warmer. So in 1961 he warned in the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party, that this trend could alter the conditions that sustain life. However, Tu considered the warming to be part of a cycle of solar activity that would likely reverse at some point. He did not suspect that burning fossil fuels was pumping carbon into the atmosphere and causing climate change. That copy of the Diario del Pueblo showed, a few pages before that article, a photo of some smiling coal miners. China embarked on industrialization with the aim of catching up economically with the West.
Today, China is an industrial powerhouse, home to more than a quarter of the world's manufacturing output, more than the United States and Germany combined. However, its progress has come at a cost in terms of emissions. Over the past three decades, China has pumped more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in total than any other country (see chart 1). It now emits more than a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases each year, according to research firm Rhodium Group. That amount is roughly double that of the second-place United States (although on a per capita basis, the United States still fares worse).
Much therefore depends on China if the world is to keep global warming since the Industrial Revolution well below 2ºC, as governments committed at the 2015 annual United Nations climate change summit. When those governments meet in Dubai for this year's summit, which opens on November 30, China will have good news and bad news in store for them.
On the positive side, China's emissions will soon stop rising. Some analysts believe they will peak this year. There is little doubt that the peak will arrive before 2030, which is the objective set by China itself. The construction of nuclear power plants is progressing faster than in any other country. China has also invested heavily in renewable energy (see chart 2), so it now has wind and solar generation capacity of about 750 gigawatts, about a third of the world's total. By the end of the decade, the government aims to reach 1,200 gigawatts, more than the total energy capacity of the European Union at the moment. It is likely to far exceed such a goal.
Now, it's not just the adoption of renewable energy that is helping China curb emissions. Its highly carbon-intensive production of steel and cement has declined. After decades of building roads and railroads, the government is spending less on big infrastructure projects. A prolonged expansion of the real estate sector ended in a collapse that has shaken the economy, but that has led to fewer emissions. Few analysts expect China's GDP to grow as fast as it did at the end of the last century and the beginning of this one. In other words, the dirtiest phase of China's development is likely behind us.
However, what happens next is more important than the maximum. China has committed to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions ("carbon neutrality") by 2060. Analysts believe it will be a much more difficult goal to achieve. Despite the massive contribution of renewable energy, dirty coal continues to supply around 55% of the country's energy. That percentage is down from 70% in 2011, but the amount of coal burned continues to increase as demand for electricity grows. Last year, China mined a record 4.5 billion tons of coal and approved the construction of an average of two new coal-fired power plants a week.
Many of them may never be built. Declining utilization rates of existing coal plants weaken the case for new construction. However, China is not moving away from coal as quickly as environmentalists would like or analysts say is necessary to meet its 2060 goal. Part of the problem is that the country has a lot of coal. With little oil or gas, coal provides a secure source of energy. Its extraction creates jobs. Building a coal plant, whether necessary or not, is also a common way for local governments to boost short-term economic growth.
China's power grid was built with coal in mind. In the plants that burn it, people decide when to increase or reduce the power. In the case of solar and wind energy, nature is in charge. So the network must be more flexible. If there is a surplus of energy in one place, it must be able to store it or transfer it to another. Otherwise, China will not be able to host many new wind turbines and solar panels in the future.
Most countries need to make similar changes to their networks. However, the challenge China faces is unique, says David Fishman of the Lantau Group, an energy consultancy. Most of the country's solar and wind resources are in the west; although the energy generated is needed mainly in the east, where the main cities are located. Transferring it over such long distances is complicated. Another problem is that provincial governments have a lot to say about how their part of the network works. They do not like to depend on others for energy. Thus, for example, a province may choose to use its own coal plant instead of turning to a cleaner energy source located elsewhere.
Those concerned about China's progress are also concerned about methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Some countries can reduce their methane emissions in simple ways; for example, repairing leaking gas pipes. Now, most of the methane coming from China comes from coal mines or is produced by microbes in rice fields. Solving the problem is difficult without closing mines or changing agricultural practices. That explains why, at the 2021 United Nations climate change summit, China refused to join the more than 100 countries (including the United States) that pledged to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030. China has said it will address the issue in its national climate plan for 2035, which will not be made public for two years.
Faced with such challenges, Chinese leaders must be bold. But their climate ambitions may have already peaked, says Shuo Li, new director of the China Climate Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York. Li believes power outages caused by rising coal prices and droughts, which disrupt hydropower generation, have spooked officials in recent years. He now worries that climate-friendly policies will undermine the country's energy security (environmentalists argue that some reforms, such as making the grid more flexible, would have the opposite effect). According to Li, China's emissions will stabilize rather than decline.
However, China has good reasons to prioritize climate. Some of its largest cities, such as Shanghai, are located on the coast and could be swallowed by rising sea levels. The arid north lacks drinking water. Extreme weather is already taking its toll. Last year, deaths associated with heat waves in China increased by 342% compared to the historical average, according to a study published by the medical journal The Lancet. This summer, flooding damaged much of the wheat crop.
Meanwhile, the country has become at the forefront of green energy technology. The rest of the world relies heavily on Chinese supply chains for solar panels and batteries. China has surpassed Japan this year to become the world's largest automobile exporter, thanks in part to Chinese dominance in electric vehicles.
So there is some hope that China will play a productive role at the Dubai climate summit. Given his ambition to lead the global South, he will not want to appear to be neglecting a priority issue for many developing country officials. Optimists also take note of the meeting in November between Xie Zhenhua, Chinese climate envoy, and John Kerry, his American counterpart. The two agreed on some small steps, such as collaborating on carbon capture projects.
However, China has also made clear that it will not give in to pressure on climate change. Earlier this year, its president Xi Jinping reiterated the goal of peaking carbon emissions in 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality in 2060. "But the path, method, pace and intensity to achieve that goal should be and have to be determined by ourselves, and will never be influenced by others," he stated.
© 2023 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved
Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
