The second round of the French legislative elections, which are held this Sunday, will serve to renew the 577 seats in the National Assembly. They are very important for the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, re-elected on April 24, because he needs a broad and stable majority to be able to carry out his projects over the next five years.
Which parties are the favourites?
The results of the first round and the projections of the polls suggest a victory for the coalition that supports Macron, Ensemble (Together), which includes center, center-right and center-left parties. It is in doubt, however, whether he will obtain an absolute majority. The second force will be the leftist coalition (New Popular Ecological and Social Union, Nupes) headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It is expected that Marine Le Pen's far-right will make progress compared to 2017 and that the Republicans (LR) will maintain a decent representation in the Assembly, thanks to their good historical presence in the territories.
What will happen if Macron loses the absolute majority?
In the event that Ensemble does not reach the magic figure of 289 seats, it is most likely that the government will seek specific allies among the deputies of Los Republicanos, some independent regionalists and even moderate socialist deputies elected on the Nupes lists. But that scenario would pose serious difficulties for the president. He would tie her hands.
What are the main projects of the legislature?
Macron's most ambitious and controversial initiative is the pension reform, which was aborted as a result of the pandemic. In principle, it is planned to raise the legal retirement age from 62 to 65 to preserve the financial stability of the system. Also on the agenda is a reform of the civil service that streamlines and makes the State more efficient. In the unlikely, but not impossible, event that the left wins, Mélenchon would want a constitutional reform to end the "presidential monarchy" and increase the powers of Parliament. It would be the birth of the VI Republic.
What is cohabitation?
This is the situation experienced by presidents François Mitterrand (socialist) and Jacques Chirac (conservative) when they had to cohabit with a National Assembly and a prime minister of another political persuasion. It occurred in the periods 1986-1988, 1993-1995 and 1997-2002. Mélenchon intends to repeat the experience with Macron if the voters choose a National Assembly with a majority of the left.
Why is Macron's great rival today Mélenchon and not Le Pen, as in the recent presidential elections?
Jean-Luc Mélenchon came third in the presidential elections, with almost 22% of the vote in the first round, while Marine Le Pen disputed the second round against Macron and reached 41% of the vote. But the legislative ones take place in a different scenario. Mélenchon has achieved what seemed impossible: uniting almost the entire left. Hence the good results of it. The majority system punishes Le Pen, especially in the legislative elections. It is very difficult to win seats in the second round because an aggregation of votes is almost always formed, the so-called "republican front" -or cordon sanitaire- to curb the extreme right.
Why is there talk of the National Assembly and not the Senate?
The French Senate is not directly elected by the population. It is a chamber of territorial representation. The 348 senators, who serve six-year terms, are elected by a body of some 162,000 "great electors." In each department, departmental, regional and municipal councilors vote, as well as the deputies and senators who represent the territory. Hence, its composition and majority are very complex. Every three years half of the Senate is renewed. It currently has a center-right majority. The Senate also votes on laws and controls the Government, but cannot vote on the motion of confidence or the motion of censure.
