'Ukrainian fatigue' among Kyiv's allies has led to a drastic decline in new Western aid packages to Ukraine's war efforts, which have plummeted to the lowest level since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. With the Republican blockade of the new aid package in the US Congress and Hungarian Víktor Orbán's veto threats at next week's complicated EU summit, support for Ukraine is at its most critical point.
Aid commitments fell by almost 90% between August and October 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, as revealed by the Kiel institute, which has monitored aid packages in the military, financial and promised humanitarian aid sectors. handed over to Ukraine since the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022.
According to data from the German research center, new commitments made between the beginning of August and the end of October amount to 2,110 million euros, 87% less than in the same period in 2022. This is the “lowest” quarterly amount since the start of the war.
In total, since the start of the war, Ukraine's allies and the main international organizations (World Bank, IMF...) have committed to providing nearly 255 billion euros in aid, of which 182 billion to short term (already delivered or planned within a year). These commitments include 141 billion euros in financial aid, almost 16 billion in humanitarian aid and 98 billion in military aid.
During the period from August to October 2023, among the 42 donor countries followed by the institute, "only 20 have committed to new aid packages" and new commitments from the European Union and the United States have been "limited." "The outlook is uncertain," according to the institute, "as the largest pending commitment, that of the European Union, has not been approved and US aid is declining."
"Given the uncertainty surrounding the continuation of US aid, Ukraine can only hope that the EU finally adopts its long-announced €50 billion support package. A further delay would clearly strengthen Putin's position," warns Christoph Trebesch, who heads the team monitoring aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive has failed to make the expected gains on Russian defensive lines. President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday vowed to continue fighting and urged G7 leaders to respond to growing uncertainty over financial support.
That same day, Republicans blocked the approval in the United States Senate of a budget project that included more than $61 billion in military aid for Kyiv. The leader of the conservative caucus in the Senate, Mitch MacConell, assured that his party will not support any budget package if immigration restrictions are not imposed in exchange.
The White House warned on Monday that at the end of the year the US government will not have money to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia and will run out of resources to acquire more weapons and equipment for Kyiv.
European support is also faltering a few days before the European Council summit on December 14 and 15, which will discuss the start of negotiations for Ukraine's accession to the EU and the long-awaited sending of a 50 billion aid package due to the frontal opposition of Víktor Orbán.
The Hungarian Prime Minister traveled to Paris yesterday to discuss the matter with French President Emmanuel Macron, and spoke with the Spanish Pedro Sánchez, in his capacity as rotating president of the European Council. Kyiv also announced its willingness to organize a meeting between the leaders of both countries to bring positions closer together.
