The war in Gran Betica, the first round of some generals that have not (yet) been called, but are the essential atmospheric factor of the electoral advance in Andalusia, does not start well for Moncloa. In Genoa and San Telmo, seat of the presidency of the Junta, on the other hand, the overture of the Radetzky March, the martial anthem of the Austrian (nationalist) hero in the 1848 revolution, plays at full volume. The CIS orchestra, under the direction of Tezanos, he predicts a triumphant cavalcata for Moreno Bonilla, who would win in all the provinces – including Seville, the PSOE's Gallic village – and would sit down to negotiate with Vox to guarantee the Quirinale in a position of strength, although without hegemony full.
The right grow twenty points in voting intention compared to 2018 and thus consolidate the conservative turn in the South, while shedding light on a change of cycle in Spain. The immense catastrophe of Moreno Bonilla three years ago is now the dominant trend, to the horror of the PSOE and the (scarce) front of Yolanda Díaz, whose advance party is willing to abstain from the investiture of the PP leader to spare him the deal with the ultramontane.
The socialists, with whom the CIS is not very merciful, do not even want to hear about this idea. They prefer Vox within San Telmo as a vaccine before the municipal ones (within a year) or a possible sudden end of the legislature in Congress. His candidate, Juan Espadas, declares himself incredulous at this forecast. He is alone. His militants give him credibility. The economic policy of Moncloa –whose last chapter is the increase in self-employed contributions– turns unemployment data into wet gunpowder, multiplies the outraged and nourishes the group of those affected by a tax practice that exceeds the OECD average (with lower income). Ferraz doesn't admit it, but at this point he's content to mitigate the damage.
Tezanos, however, leaves unknowns open: he does not resolve the fate of the bag of undecideds (more than 43%) nor does he refine too much with abstention, a constant growing in Andalusia when his elections do not coincide with the general ones. He also does not conclude whether Moreno Bonilla will be able to govern alone (or in the company of others). According to Goethe's color theory, the options range between the minority blue (the preferred perfume in Genoa) and the mint (with slight traces of turquoise) resulting from merging the green of Vox with the color code of the PP.
The campaign, and its television debates, which take place the next two Mondays, will be decisive. The uncertainty makes all the candidates avoid risks – in the case of Moreno Bonilla they are the brand of the PP and the help of Ayuso – and they started the battle yesterday in family or sentimental spaces. Marín and the president of the Board chose Seville, the most disputed place. Swords opted for Jaén, a socialist fief that will cease to be. Nieto (For Andalusia) preferred the city of his birth: Algeciras. And Olona (Vox), Granada: his figurative homeland.
