The PSOE wants no doubts about it: its strategic ally among the Basque parties is the PNV and not EH Bildu. A few weeks before the July elections and after the electoral setback, the Socialists want this commitment to be clearly displayed and they will make it clear in the constitution of the Basque city councils and the provincial councils. On the one hand, the PNV and the PSE are negotiating a global pact that will benefit both formations to the detriment of EH Bildu. On the other hand, the Navarrese socialists have made it clear that they will not support the Abertzale coalition in Pamplona, something that will be extended to other Navarrese municipalities and that benefits UPN.
One of the PSOE's assets in the hasty campaign that is coming are the pacts that PP and Vox will inevitably have to reach to govern in numerous cities and communities in the next two months. Some politically risky agreements for the PP that can argue against the alliances of the Socialists with Bildu in a kind of and you more. This is precisely the scenario that the PSOE now wants to avoid by removing EH Bildu from the equation; showing him as an instrumental ally that has allowed him to approve the social policies approved during the legislature. But an ally from which an abyss separates them.
In the socialist ranks they believe that their agreements with EH Bildu throughout the legislature have been one of the factors that has taken its toll on them at the polls on Sunday, especially as a result of the inclusion of exetarras in some of the lists of the coalition The PP made it one of the axes of its campaign and the PSOE does not want it to happen again.
That is where the PNV enters the scene. The jeltzales have claimed throughout the legislature a role of preferred partner, something they have not always achieved. In the final stretch of the mandate, however, they will see how the socialists themselves emphasize that role. In a context of total conflict between the PNV and EH Bildu, supporting the jeltzales means opening a gap with respect to the abertzale coalition, even isolating it at an institutional level. The PSOE is interested, especially in terms of Spanish politics, but also from a Basque perspective.
The main path goes through that global pact between Basque nationalists and socialists. This is a classic alliance in Basque politics. The PNV-PSE understanding has worked at different historical moments since 1986, with the added precedent of the concentration government of Lehendakari José Antonio Agirre 50 years earlier. It is in force in the Basque Government and also operated in the provincial councils and in many town halls during the legislature that has just ended. There is no lurch, although on this occasion the circumstance occurs that, given the rise of EH Bildu, in some institutions they will need the PP.
The clearest examples are the mayor's office of Vitoria-Gasteiz and the presidency of the Provincial Council of Gipuzkoa, the two most coveted positions that the pact will win. EH Bildu has prevailed in both institutions, with greater solvency in the case of the Gipuzkoan territory, so that the Jeltzales and Socialists will need the support of the PP, third in the Álava capital and fifth in Gipuzkoa.
The global agreement in Euskadi will allow the PSOE to stage a distancing with EH Bildu and, in a Basque key, govern one of the capitals 12 years later, as well as enjoy stability in the fiefdoms in which it has been first. The pact also offers advantages for the PNV. The jeltzales have shown wear and tear in these elections and have lost 86,000 votes in the town halls. They admit an abstention from punishment and the same election night they announced a “reflection”. "It has been a clear warning and we take note for the future," said Andoni Ortuzar. In any case, they want to move to another screen as soon as possible and begin to draw a context that places them in a winning key. The pact will allow them to manage the three councils and enjoy stability in many municipalities.
In the case of the PNV, however, it also entails some risks. Next spring a new Basque Parliament and a new lehendakari will be elected. Both formations play a game of chess in which each move is measured. EH Bildu put the PNV in check this Sunday. Ortuzar will move to isolate this formation in the conformation of municipalities and councils. The Abertzale coalition, meanwhile, intends to grow in the July elections and will allude to an alignment of the PNV with the PP. Look for a new check, prevail in some generals to your rival to beat.
In parallel, the electoral proximity shakes the Navarrese board. EH Bildu aspired to return to govern Pamplona four years later, after having been a few votes behind UPN. In her favor, she had a strategic movement of pieces: the socialist María Chivite needs the nationalist abstention for her investiture. The PSN has already said no to Joseba Asiron (EH Bildu) in Pamplona. Chivite's re-election may be postponed beyond July 23. The first are the generals.
