High temperatures embrace large regions of Europe, from Germany to the Balkans. Germany's meteorological services warned of extreme heat on the Upper Rhine on Tuesday as thermometers reached 40ºC in Sardinia. And, in parallel, the freezing level in the Alps has risen to about 4,600 to 4,800 meters. Meanwhile, the world has registered in the first days of July the hottest week on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
"According to various data sets from our partners in different parts of the world, the first week of July set a new record in terms of average daily temperatures," said Omar Baddour, WMO's head of climate monitoring.
“WMO and the broader scientific community are closely watching these dramatic changes in different components of the climate system and sea surface temperatures,” he noted.
Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere this summer. The heat is scorching from China to Texas, while flooding affects New York and Delhi. The high temperatures are on track to break the heat records set in 2022 in Europe.
The decrease in flows in the large European rivers is one of the elements that focuses attention. The low flow of the Rhine may complicate the transport of energy products in Europe. The water level in Frankfurt may drop below one meter this Wednesday.
In August last year, it was below 40 centimetres, making this freight transport uneconomical for many barges. Low water levels restrict the volumes that can be moved by barges. In Germany, the heat wave is expected to subside next week, after temperatures in Frankfurt have reached 35.5°C. Still, temperatures are expected to remain above normal in much of southern Europe.
The WMO reported that on July 7 the average daily temperature of the planet reached 17.24ºC, in a week of previous records. Thus, the previous record of 16.94°C, measured on August 16, 2016, was exceeded by 0.3°C.
"Having verified that the temperatures last week have probably been the hottest in human history on Earth is the demonstration that we are in unknown territory because we have never seen this global temperature before this week," Carlo points out to this newspaper. Buontempo, Director of the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Buontempo affirms that this warming has various causes; but in the first place, it stands out that, after three years of cold phase of the oscillation of the temperature of the Pacific water, this year "we are officially entering a phase of El Niño", a phenomenon that is accompanied by warming in a large part of the planet, as WMO announced last week.
Two more factors influence the current warming. On the one hand, the "very extreme" temperatures located in some parts of the Southern Ocean have an impact and, secondly, the "quite exceptional" temperatures in the North Atlantic, from Iceland and Ireland to Senegal "and that affect us very directly ”.
“Temperatures in the North Atlantic are unprecedented and cause for great concern. They are much higher than the models predicted," said Michael Sparrow, WMO's head of global climate research. This will have a ripple effect on ecosystems and fisheries and on our climate."
Buontempo highlights that the Earth has registered these days the hottest week since there are reliable records (since 1979, date from which satellite data is available).
“But the climate before the year 1979 was colder, so we can extend that record in time and it is very likely that it was also the week with the highest temperatures since we know how to write our history, in the last 10,000 years. and perhaps even beyond”, he highlights.
Buontempo indicates that "we are going towards a constant rise in temperature", with which "in a few weeks, in a few months or maybe in a year we will cross this threshold and we will once again have the hottest day or the hottest week of the history".
The WMO and the UK Met Office have already said that it is very likely that in the next 12 to 14 months, between 2023 and 2024, we will have another temperature spike. In fact, "all the temperature peaks worldwide have coincided with a year of El Niño", therefore, given this rise in temperature, "it is almost certain that we will have a maximum temperature".
"The temperature in the first part of the year has already been above previous years; with which there is a possibility that by 2023 it will already have records," says the climatologist.
Buontempo also highlights this year the decrease in ice in the seas surrounding Antarctica, another important climate indicator. "Looking at the evolution of the polar ice curves (of Antarctica) we see that it is being a very unusual year. The decrease in sea ice has been very important," he points out.
The Copernicus service showed that last June was the hottest on record; they were measured more than 0.5°C above the average (1991-2020), surpassing the previous record of June 2019.
