All the surveys released to date underline that of the parties that make up the Botànic - PSPV, Compromís and Unides Podem - only the Socialists can substantially improve the results obtained in 2019. There is a possibility that the Valencian coalition will see its electoral market diminished and In the case of Unides Podem, there is concern about the options to overcome the electoral barrier of 5% (in 2019 the union of Podem and EUPV obtained 8%). The polls also make it clear that the PSPV will once again need its partners to hold the presidency of the Generalitat if they surpass the right-wing bloc.
This is the photograph of the moment, which predicts that if there is a third Botànic it will be, in large part, due to a hypothetical electoral success of the Socialists. Naturally, this photograph may vary as the electoral campaign develops and the actions for their constituents by Joan Baldoví, who enjoys great notoriety, and Héctor Illueca (more than 20% of voters adopt the decision in the last days before at the opening of the polls). But the objective data of the moment confirm that the success or failure of being able to revalidate a III Botànic after 28M will weigh on Ximo Puig. The PP knows this well, which is going to direct part of its strategy to try to erode the figure of the president. A strong Ximo Puig in the campaign is the biggest threat for the right to conquer the institutions.
In these four years, the socialist candidate has achieved great prominence at key moments such as the management of the pandemic or the achievement of attracting investments from multinationals such as the Volkswagen gigafactory in Sagunt. And in recent months he has not hesitated to claim his "autonomy" when confronting the Government on issues such as the Tajo-Segura transfer or in criticizing the Government's lack of will to resolve pending issues such as regional financing . A prominence that has been increased by the disappearance of what for many years was, shall we say, co-leader of the Botànic project: Mónica Oltra.
The PSPV is going to develop, therefore, a campaign very focused on the figure of the president and on the achievements of his management at the helm of the Generalitat Valenciana for eight years. It will, therefore, be a campaign much more aimed at disclosing the profile of Ximo Puig than at talking about the success of the botanical formula. The Socialist campaign team is convinced that this strategy is going to be fundamental not only for the benefit of the candidate, but also, and collaterally, in the political project of the entire Botànic. Compromís and Unides Podem are also expected to carry out their campaigns without launching attacks on the president.
The Valencian socialists have come to the conviction that the presence in the campaign of Pedro Sánchez is not going to contribute or subtract anything, it is even preferred that the debate move away from the tensions of national politics. In other words, whether Ximo Puig becomes president again "is going to depend more than ever on himself," they point out. In fact, up to now, the president has focused on his speeches to talk about the achievements of his executive, not those of the Spanish Government, and this will be the line of work for the coming weeks.
In addition, they want to develop a "close" and "quiet" campaign, in which Ximo Puig is not going to pay attention to the attacks of the right-wing leaders. In which he is going to elaborate a "comparison" speech between the years of the PP governments and those of the Botànic, between the current Valencian "reputation" and that suffered a decade ago. "We do not want to go back", is the message that the president launched when calling elections and that summarizes the values that will permeate his campaign until 28M. It will be necessary to be attentive to the campaign debates that will be organized by various media such as À Punt, Cadena Ser or COPE together with Las Provincias.
In the PSPV there is also the conviction that if Ximo Puig is not president, neither will Pedro Sánchez after the general elections. Well, it is valued that what happens in the Valencian Community will audit the situation of the left and the strengths of the right in the last great autonomy presided over by a socialist. On the contrary, they conclude that if Ximo Puig becomes president again, he will consolidate himself as the strongest regional baron of the PSOE.
