At this point, the very credible or scarcely reliable surveys conclude in a truism: in most of the municipalities of Spain and the Valencian Community, in the autonomies, in the councils and in the central government, a right-wing bloc will govern that they form PP and VOX or a left-wing bloc, to be formed by the PSOE, Compromís in the Valencian case, Podemos and Sumar and the derived allies. This is a country divided into two halves.
Neither Feijóo nor Carlos Mazón nor, of course, Pedro Sánchez or Ximo Puig will obtain a sufficient majority to govern alone. Maybe María José Catalá, but I doubt it. Not even in the socialist case do they want it, according to how they present the campaign, always focused on leading an alliance with others to reach the prodigious decade.
The PSOE does not rise in the polls, although it shows very firm ground, despite the fact that it suffers an earthquake every day. But the PP in the polls for any parliament and city council only eats the votes of Ciudadanos and a dozen more of VOX, which falls despite its greater visibility due to the censorship/Tamames effect. Mathematically the decision is between blocks and not between parties. Although right-wing parties join the left block and ideologically conservative parties, such as the PNV or the Canary Coalition, are not willing to support the PP.
They are the paradoxes of Spanish politics. The monsters that Gramsci said that appear when the old has not left and the new has not arrived. A policy that is danced on a brick, like a tango, with the risk of stepping on the line for just a bad wink between now and the electoral dates for each ballot box. The mobilization of the progressive vote depends on the fact that in one or the other elections, on a fixed date or in advance, nobody takes their feet out of the pot as has been the norm these years.
Both Pedro Sánchez and Ximo Puig boast of presenting themselves as leaders of a majority progressive proposal, assuming from the beginning that in order to govern they will have to repeat with the Botánic or with all the alliances that are necessary, whether they are more to the left or more to the right. They are clear that to govern they will need votes from outside the PSOE, whatever happens between Yolanda Diaz/Sumar (reverted to social democrats) and Unidas Podemos, whom they will attract with the necessary mortar to reach institutional power and leave populist power. The president of the Provincial Council of Castellón, the socialist José Pascual Martí, mayor of Sueras, launched these days the message that sums up this entire strategy: "It is convenient that a progressive government continue to lead the Provincial Council."
Quite the opposite of what Núñez Feijóo, Carlos Mazón or Maria José Catalá maintain. To lie to a government with VOX is to lie to the devil, even though they know that they cannot achieve sufficient absolute majorities in almost any ballot box. And it is that they know that a right-wing coalition is frowned upon by the media even among their own and they flee from announcing it. An achievement of the story of the left that has known how to place the reputational curse on the right over these years, which, however, has mobilized its vote, more due to the permanent errors of the progressive left than due to its own conservative merits.
In the end, after all, what is cooking is a story against it based on banners and slogans, since the electoral programs are more of the same, with more or less disguised results. We therefore have a few months left with this style based on advertisements that will repeat that of "he who xiules, capador."
