Artificial intelligence (AI) is experiencing dizzying progress that will mean an indelible improvement in production processes. Despite optimistic voices that minimize its impact on employment, the evidence points in the opposite direction. As AI expands its cognitive capacity, it becomes a force capable of replacing tasks previously exclusive to the human mind, which predicts job destruction on a scale unprecedented in history.
This revolution is not similar to previous technological transformations, such as the industrial revolution. At the beginning of the 19th century, machines replaced the physical strength and hands of artisans. In England at the time, a great social alarm was created and between 1811 and 1816 the Luddites protested by violently destroying the new looms, fearful that their jobs would disappear. However, technology did not ultimately lead to a decrease in labor supply, but rather a metamorphosis of the nature of work. Will this be the outcome with AI?
Modern machines sense through sensors, encompassing touch, vision and hearing; They memorize trillions of data and have the ability to analyze it instantly, making autonomous decisions that can drive the response and movement of other machines or influence people. All this without requiring human intervention. The obvious question arises as to what our role will be.
John Maynard Keynes predicted that by 2030 people would work only 15 hours a week. Although this scenario seems distant, technology will gradually displace workers in more and more tasks. Although new and unimaginable jobs will emerge (which may ultimately also end up at risk), a majority of the population will emerge unfit for work, who will coexist with a minority of employed people and with the owners of the machines. In many countries, increased productivity will make it possible to provide broad protection mechanisms, such as a universal income; The challenge will be to find a purpose that motivates people to get up every morning.
Like the Greek patricians who had slaves, our machines will allow us to dedicate excess time to philosophical reflection or leisure. Within this field, evasion of the environment through the use of virtual reality and, unfortunately, the consumption of psychoactive substances will increase. Social revolts led by those who do not adapt, perhaps with a return to a renewed Luddism, will be frequent. Education will also be affected, as school and university knowledge will become obsolete in a short time, making the continuous acquisition of skills the key to surviving in a constantly changing labor market.
AI will have an especially significant impact on high-paying jobs, known as white collar. According to Goldman Sachs, up to 300 million of these jobs could be at risk by 2030, affecting the well-being of the middle class globally, which will have undeniable political and social consequences.
Despite the clear benefits of AI in productivity, economic growth, scientific advances and knowledge of nature, it is imperative to face the other reality that is looming along with all of this and chart the course towards a new social contract as soon as possible. It is our responsibility, the responsibility of humans.
