Pedro Sánchez accompanies each step in his strategy of “political normalization” in Catalonia with the flag of the European Union. He uttered the word amnesty for the first time between Ursula Von der Leyen and Charles Michel, saying goodbye to the Spanish presidency of the EU and now he raises a wall between the independence movement and terrorism at the end of the last European Council. “The independence movement will be amnestied.” The European scenario is more prone to pacts than Congress, where Míriam Nogueras's telephone number indicates the meaning of the Junts vote and its collateral effects on the Government, the PSOE and the independence movement.
The forcefulness of Sánchez's demonstration, supported by the anthropological optimism of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – “Yes, there is going to be an amnesty law. I have no doubt” – confirms that, if the president closed a door on Tuesday by not giving in to Junts' claims, on Thursday he opened a window. The disagreement is located in the “technical-legal” area due to the definition of terrorism and the political question is obvious in the majority of the investiture. Can there be no amnesty law by decision of Junts? It is the vein in which ERC is delving.
The post-convergents assure that nothing has been broken and “there is room” for negotiation but the maneuver may have more risks than benefits. Junts' decision to stop the amnesty law in Congress was a clear “no.” The return of the text to the justice commission is now defended as a way to seek technical solutions and reconstruct arguments. Another thing is the image of unreliability that Carles Puigdemont's party offers and the unrest, also internal, that causes another negotiating closure. The “more than a thousand absolutely destroyed families” that Deputy Minister Sergi Sabrià put on the table are from Junts or ERC. On April 10, the trial of Minister Garriga, Josep Maria Jové and Lluís Salvadó must begin.
Puigdemont appreciates Sánchez's firm commitment to the amnesty but the parallel activity of the judges shakes up the negotiation and throws off electoral strategies. The Galician campaign is underway and Sánchez is fighting on two fronts: to revive Galician socialism and to avoid the absolute majority of Alberto Núñez Feijóo's heir, even if it is under the slipstream of the BNG. After the circumspect faces in the chamber due to Junts' "no", secrecy is imposed again, including the meeting of the party table that was scheduled in Geneva for the end of the month. There will hardly be any progress before going to the polls in Galicia. Every vote in the plebiscite against the right counts.
If the Government was counting on turning the page on the amnesty to negotiate the budgets, Junts' maneuver forces it to rethink the operation planned for April. And it affects a possible exchange with Catalan accounts. In May another electoral campaign looms. The European elections will be a Sánchez-Feijóo plebiscite, with the right wing growing between the 27 and Puigdemont as the Junts candidate. The duel with Oriol Junqueras would not be repeated. Neither politics nor judges guarantee his authorization.
The former president has the mission of winning in Catalonia, breaking with the narrative of the victorious PSC on the way to the Palau de la Generalitat and trying to relegate ERC. The parliamentary arithmetic arising from the last general elections has led to Puigdemont's change in strategy. He negotiates with the Government and is aware of the need to formally recover the organic control of Junts that he ceded in the Argelers congress and to reevaluate the balances between families. The right moment may be after the European elections. Junts is a party of electoral sprints so the proclamation of the Catalan candidate can be subject to the judicial transition of the amnesty and the polls.
Zapatero talks a lot about Junts as a “responsible party” and little about ERC. The experience of the PSOE and ERC with pardons and the reform of the Penal Code guarantees that there will be no surprises with the amnesty. Meanwhile, messages to Junts are redoubled. “The time has come to take the step,” warns Sánchez. Only Puigdemont has the answer as to where to go.
