Some empires fall; others flourish. This historical constant underlies the ambition of certain rulers of the Global South who believe that the international liberal order must be reconfigured and the hegemony of the West put an end. Among them, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed bin Salman, determined to consolidate his economy beyond oil and become a geopolitical player. The prince follows the path started by Qatar and the Emirates, which also swim in oil and gas, but do not have enough size to influence globally.
Since the Royal Navy replaced coal with oil in 1911, the world has depended on hydrocarbons. The creation of the OPEC cartel in the sixties consolidated the power of the producing countries and, despite the fight against climate change, we will continue to depend on black gold for some time.
What's more, in recent years, the Gulf monarchies have strengthened their exports thanks to the sanctions against Iran, Russia and Venezuela, the low investment in exploration of other countries in the process of energy transition and the OPEC (Russia) strategy of reduce production and increase prices. The result is an extraordinary flow of wealth to these countries. The sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia (PIF) accumulates assets greater than half of Spain's GDP and the sum of PIF with the sovereign funds of the Emirates and Qatar could reach 4 trillion dollars in 2030.
This fortune is used differently than in the past. In the past, these countries invested with the main objective of showing off their great fortune, like any nouveau riche. Today, Gulf leaders have drawn up scripts for this enormous wealth to be used to gain global influence. In the case of Saudi Arabia, this script is called Vision 2030, and includes the hiring of athletes (Ronaldo, Neymar) and the attraction of competitions (golf, F-1, Super Cup).
The kingdom aspires to become a tourist power (and not only, which it already is, religious tourism), developing tolerant beach areas and even ski resorts. Huge renewable generation projects are being promoted, preparing to export green energy (hydrogen) in a world without oil.
Investment is made in desalination to gain ground on the desert with forests and futuristic cities like The Line, a linear city of 170 km for one million inhabitants, without cars. Neom, in the northwest, will be an ultra-technological region. And Kaust University (Yida), with an endowment similar to Harvard, attracts the world's best scientific talent in engineering, mathematics and biology. All of this includes a controlled relaxation of strict Wahhabi morality, with emerging freedoms for women, although unfortunately it does not lead to improvements in other aspects of human rights.
At the international level, the objective is to become a force of pragmatic global influence independent of its great historical protector, the United States, which has led it to invest more in weapons, to rub shoulders with China and Russia, to heal wounds with Iran and even explore an agreement with Israel that could be signed soon. The purchase of Western strategic assets is part of that tactic: what we are seeing these days with Telefónica is just the beginning. Since 2008, in European countries there is less and less capital, a lot of debt and devalued assets; in the Persian Gulf, abundance of capital, strategy and ambition. What will prevail?
