Nineteen million Taiwanese will have to choose this Saturday “between peace and war.” The one who clearly raises the dilemma, even more than the Communist Party of China (CCP), is its historical arch-enemy, the Kuomintang, which aspires to regain the presidency of Taiwan after eight years.
The old single party of Generalissimo Chiang Kai Shek faces the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (PDP), with pro-independence tendencies and to which the polls give a slight advantage. His candidate is the current vice president, Lai Ching Te, since the president, Tsai Ing Wen, cannot run for a third term.
The wear and tear of his party is evident in any case. If the PDP obtained 57% of the votes four years ago, this time the polls attribute it twenty points less. Part of the blame lies with the wedge represented by the former mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen Je. Although it was formed in the heat of the PDP, in recent years it has shifted towards more conciliatory positions with the People's Republic of China.
A possible joint candidacy of Ko with Kuomintang candidate and former mayor of New Taipei, Hou Yu Ih, was in the air until the last day. Shortly before, Foxconn founder Terry Gou had withdrawn from the fray. He also dramatically referred to the need to prevent Taiwan from becoming “the next Ukraine.”
Although the United Ballet of Ukraine performed last week in Taipei for the second time in less than a year, the island's government assures that only peace fits in their minds. This is stated by her candidate for vice president, the Presbyterian Hsiao Bi Khim, until now de facto ambassador to the United States, ultimately the country of her mother.
However, many young people have taken note that military service, which now lasts four months, will be extended to twelve months starting this year. In one of the areas of the world with the highest per capita income, the prospect of holding a rifle instead of a cell phone is little exciting.
While some think tanks describe the island's terrain as ideal for asymmetric warfare, many kids are preparing to vote for the novelty that Ko represents. Someone who, as mayor, made an effort to strengthen ties with Shanghai and who affirms that Both sides of the strait are “family.” Without any political affinity.
In his New Year message, Xi Jinping reiterated that reunification “is inevitable.” To reinforce his argument, the Chinese president has been consciously violating for years the red lines that the “rebellious province” writes in the water or in the air. In September, with no less than 103 war planes.
Many Taiwanese hate him. Without seeing any benefit in the lack of communication between Beijing and Taipei, accentuated since the Trump presidency.
Likewise, some decisions by the Tsai government have hurt sensitivities and agitated the campaign. For example, the suppression of 15 of the 30 Chinese classic works included in the secondary school curriculum, in favor of “Taiwanese or universal” works. Confucian values are not to be trifled with.
Although Taiwan continues to produce 90% of the most advanced semiconductors, its economy grew a modest 1.4% last year. It should be added that China represents a quarter of its commercial exchanges, in addition to enormous cross-investments, and that certain rhetoric and the accumulation of uncertainties scare money.
For this reason, the Kuomintang, a party of order and viscerally anti-communist – its candidate is no longer a general, but a former director general of the police – encourages the million Taiwanese residents of the People's Republic to go to the island to vote. Something they can only do in person. While the PDP does the same with the million Taiwanese living in the US.
For the rest, the belligerence with Beijing has been counterproductive. During Tsai's presidency, nine states have broken diplomatic relations with the Republic of China – the official name of Taiwan – to the benefit of the People's Republic. They have Guatemala, Paraguay, a handful of islands and the blessing of the Vatican, while the arsenals grow on both sides,
