General review of the INE of its previous growth data. On the one hand, it raises the increase in GDP to 1.5% in the second quarter of the year, four tenths more than in its advanced data. It is a powerful growth achieved thanks to the boost of exports, and on the other hand, with a worse performance of consumption than had been forecast. Domestic consumption continues at very low levels. At the same time, the INE also reviews its data from the beginning of the year, and this time in the opposite direction. It lowers it four tenths, with which the economy fell 2 tenths in the first quarter of the year. The omicrom variant and the carriers' strike had a greater impact than calculated.
In the second quarter, the economy has been supported by exports, which have increased by 4.9% while there has been a significant reduction in imports. On the other hand, consumption has not responded as expected. Household final consumption is flat so far this year. If in the first quarter it fell by 1.2%, in the second the same percentage has been recovered.
From the Ministry of Economy they affirm that "these data confirm the strength of the growth of the Spanish economy driven by national demand and exports."
"I am struck by the weakness of consumption. Since the economic recovery began, domestic consumption has not taken off," says María Jesús Fernández, from Funcas, who also highlights, in the opposite direction, the boost that foreign tourism is giving, with figures that are 30% above the average for 2019, that is, before the pandemic. "With these data, annual growth can reach 4.4%, even if there are some falls in the third or fourth quarter," adds this economist.
For his part, José Emilio Bosca, from Fedea, points out that "domestic consumption is not taking off due to inflation and uncertainty, people expect a crisis to come, surely the consumption of durable goods is slowing down." On the other hand, the positive aspect is in the strength of the foreign sector. "Exports are growing and this is good news, especially in an economy in which national consumption is decreasing," adds Bosca.
The Spanish economy will be put to the test in the coming months, which are forecast to be difficult. The skyrocketing inflation, which has been above 10% for three months, and the uncertainty about the supply of Russian gas are factors that slow down economic activity. In addition, there are months of predictable labor conflict, due to the mobilization announced by the unions to pressure the CEOE to negotiate the Agreement for Employment and Collective Bargaining (AENC).
The official government forecasts are for growth of 4.3% this year and 2.7% in 2023. These are figures that are scheduled to be updated in mid-October and at that time, many experts forecast a downward revision of the increase in GDP in 2023. Yesterday, the first vice president and economy minister said that she expected to grow around 2% next year.
.
