That Pedro Sánchez is an atypical leader is a statement about which there is no doubt. He arrived at Moncloa with the first successful motion of censure in democracy, governed in a coalition for the first time and is the first ruler to publicly show his personal feelings as motivation for making political decisions. The outcome of this parenthesis that the president has taken could not respond to conventions. Thus, Sánchez has surprised by declaring that there will be no surprise.
The president's decision opens two political periods. In the short term his gesture may be favorable for the socialists. In the medium or long term, quite the opposite. Because?
Despite the appeals for collective reflection launched by Sánchez on the neatness of the exercise of politics, it is not feasible that anything will change in the practice of the parties. Firstly, because the increase in tension is not something only in the Spanish ecosystem and secondly because those who hate the figure of the president are going to do so now with more arguments, since they will portray him as a politician willing to do anything, even to use his family, to remain in power. The first reactions from the opposition are furious and there is even discontent among the majority of the PSOE's parliamentary allies.
The five days in which he has kept the country in suspense do not exactly contribute to reinforcing the idea of a serene and prudent ruler. In the rest of the parties, especially those in which the Catalan elections are being played, there is a certain feeling of being teased. At this point we have to wait to find out if the president intends to address reforms of some kind to undertake that political regeneration that, according to his speech, is urgent to address. It would be the only argument with which Sánchez could convince his supporters that a turning point has occurred.
Those who do not want the PP to govern have found a certain point of connection. The PSOE has shown itself this past weekend as a united party in a way it has not been for a long time. Beyond the angry reactions of the Catalan independence movement, in the midst of the electoral campaign, and the anger of other allies, the president's decision has also allowed the Government's parliamentary partners, from Sumar to Junts, to outline the uncertainty that would arise if Sánchez left Moncloa. Even if the PSOE continued to hold the presidency in the person of another leader, the relationship with those parties would not be the same, especially with the Catalan independentists.
Sánchez has spent a lot of time getting to know Catalan politics. It took him a while to understand the mechanisms of the relationship with ERC and he has barely begun to do so with Junts. A replacement in the Moncloa would set the counter of that relationship to zero, whether the new tenant was from the PSOE or the PP. But if this movement has consolidated the government majority, we will see it in the negotiation of the State Budget, the true question of confidence in the president.
Continuing with the short-term scenario, Sánchez has marked the Catalan election campaign. His gesture has stolen the spotlight from Carles Puigdemont, who had attracted all the attention with his decision to run as a candidate for 12-M. Salvador Illa had foreseen that Sánchez would become fully involved in the campaign. The presence of the PSOE leader in Catalonia can serve to activate and mobilize the PSC electorate, although it will obviously attract criticism from everyone else and may even discourage those who were not convinced.
In the longer term, everything is a disadvantage for the PSOE. Sánchez is already a “lame duck”, that is, a president who will not run again, since he has made clear the personal cost of governing. The party has seen the wolf's ears and should now undertake the debate on his succession, although it is possible that it will not end up doing so. This situation is something that always weakens the authority of whoever is in power and causes internal conflict in a political force, especially the socialist one.
And one last derivative of that observation. When a politician is in the last stretch of his presidency and is aware of it, he seeks in some way to establish what his legacy is for history, beyond the legend of the phoenix, of a resilient leader capable of overcoming any obstacle. Sánchez's mandates have been marked from the beginning by the Catalan conflict. It is very possible that it is on that flank where he wants to leave his mark before leaving. We'll see.
