If we eliminate man from the equation and are left with only the rationality and self-interest of states, the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East are wars of conquest and domination, like all throughout history. Eliminating the man means ignoring the interests of the leaders to remain in power and take on the lives lost in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond, something we are already doing under the anesthesia of abstract and constant information.
Israel, which has suffered greatly and has abandoned the hostages to their fate, will strike whatever it deems necessary to restore deterrence on its enemies. He wants them to see how his people die if he is attacked. The ultranationalist government will not let up.
Iran, which has been in the pariah corner for decades, will not let up either. The Guardians of the Revolution, the hard core of power, have taken the reins. “Strategic patience” has not worked. It is no longer worth hitting Israel through proxy militias. Even Hezbollah has ceased to be a deterrent. Israel assassinates the Iranian commanders in Damascus without the intelligence services finding out and easily reaches the nuclear facilities in Isfahan. The aerospace force is a disaster. The Houthis barely distort maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Gaza is lost.
Since the US abandoned the nuclear pact in 2018, Iran has found new friends in Russia and China. And he is closer than ever to the atomic bomb, but he needs Russia at his side. That's why he sells drones and missiles to attack Ukraine. Because on its own it will not be able to stop Israel, much less if the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Jordan come to its aid, as they have already done.
Russia is doing well in the war in Gaza. She distracts and tires her main enemies in Europe, starting with the United States. Meanwhile, he strengthens her presence in North Africa and the Sahel, where he gladly assumes the role of liberator from French neocolonialism.
There is no doubt that Russia is encircling Europe. Ukraine is the most important front in a much broader offensive stretching along the southern shore of the Mediterranean.
The Russian navy has two ports in the Mediterranean: Tartus (Syria) and Tobruk (Libya), where it unloads weapons by tons. Wagner has been in Libya since 2018. He supports the Benghazi separatists. But Moscow is also on good terms with the internationally recognized government in Tripoli, the guardian of its oil interests. Libya has the largest crude oil reserves in Africa and Russia helps it exploit several fields. That's why he plays both sides, between Tripoli and Benghazi. It not only needs Tobruk, but the entire country because Libya links the Sahel with the Mediterranean and Europe. Russia aspires to control Western Europe's backyard in Africa and this involves controlling migratory flows in the central Mediterranean. The EU pays Tunisia and Libya to stop migrants, but Russia will raise the offer and, if necessary, China will foot the bill. Tunisia is too small and weak to oppose it and Algeria has always been on good terms with Russia. Spain will no longer see war so far away.
Turkey is also an ally of Libya based in Tripoli and since October 7 there are no longer so many disagreements with Russia. The relationship improves. Both support Hamas. Türkiye because it wants to lead the Muslim world and Russia because it wants to do the same with the global south. Trade between both countries breaks records and they no longer fight as much over Libya, Syria or the Nagorno Karabakh enclave in Transcaucasia.
Russia's marriages with Hamas, Iran, Libya and Turkey are ones of convenience, but they work because nothing unites more than economic, military and political interests. These couples believe that love, culture and ethical values are outdated nonsense and that only weak countries allow themselves to be carried away by emotions, that is, by the human factor, precisely the one that we have tried to eliminate from this analysis to see more clearly. clearly the game being played in Europe, the Middle East and the Mediterranean: Russia, once again, against Europe and the United States, while China watches from the sidelines, hoping to take advantage of the opportunities that all wars provide. In this case it is the sale of military technology to Russia, access to energy in Iran, Libya and Russia itself and, when the time comes, contracts to rebuild Gaza.
Israel also has a chance. A golden one to rehabilitate his battered reputation in half the world. If it accepts a ceasefire in Gaza, Iran will lose much of its argument to continue attacking. If, at the same time, he breaks with Russia and unambiguously embraces the cause of Ukraine, something he has not done for fear of what might happen to Russian Jews, he will improve his position in Europe, the United States and the Sunni Middle East that is opposes Iran. Israel no longer needs to court Russia to contain Iran as it has done up to now. She needs to regain lost legitimacy in Gaza to contain an enemy much more dangerous than Hamas. If she gives up on completely and immediately destroying Hamas, she will have a much easier time cornering the ayatollahs and weakening Russia for the benefit of Europe, the US, and Iranian society.
It would be the most convenient, although it may not be the most likely.
