In Yemen, where qat chewing has never stopped, peace was almost chewed, for the first time in many years. The negotiations of the last few days in Sana'a may be less exciting than the aforementioned herb, but they are unblocking the conflict very quickly. A Saudi delegation, with Omani accompaniment, has been dealing directly with the rebel Houthi government since Sunday. And this same Friday a prisoner exchange is expected.
The Yemeni opening is the first tangible effect of the restoration, last week in China, of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The foreign ministers of both oil powers, at the request of their best client, thus dissolved in good words the rivalry with sectarian overtones that – together with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – has been setting the pace in the Middle East for decades.
The objective of the dialogue in the capital of Yemen – in Houthi power since 2015 – is to reach a permanent ceasefire that will allow Saudi Arabia to disengage from a bloody war that, at the head of an Arab coalition, began as early as 2016, the then Defense Minister – today Prime Minister – Mohamed bin Salman. This has not only damaged his reputation, by failing to subdue a guerrilla from the poorest of the Arab countries, but has also shown that it is capable of putting its oil industry in check with its drones. The prospects for a lasting peace in Yemen "are now the best since the war began," in the words of UN special envoy Hans Grundberg.
Iran has for years denied its patronage of the Houthis, who converted to a Shiite branch of Islam centuries before the Persians. However, the speed with which pacification is advancing after the entente between Iran and Saudi Arabia dispels any doubt.
This, achieved under the successful patronage of Beijing – a Pax Sinica – leaves the United States and Israel off balance. The regional policy of both governments has always been focused on the divorce between the Sunni power, Saudi Arabia, and the Shiite power, Iran, with its often violent ramifications.
For all these reasons, the White House adviser, Jake Sullivan, wanted to speak yesterday with the crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman. The same one that Joe Biden promised to make an “international pariah” during his presidential campaign.
A complex exchange of nearly nine hundred prisoners should start tomorrow. These are 706 Houthis and 181 Saudis and Sudanese, in the largest exchange since 2020, under the supervision of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
Last year, under the patronage of the UN, a six-month truce was wrested, which expired in October. The Saudi ambassador in Aden, in any case, affirms that the objective of the negotiations with the de facto authorities in Sana'a is “a global political solution”. The presidential council, based in Aden, under Saudi leadership, has not intervened at all.
Meanwhile, a member of the Houthi political council, Mohamed al Bujaiti, has declared that "the release of all prisoners, the withdrawal of all foreign forces and the total lifting of the blockade" are under discussion. In this sense, Saudi Arabia has already made inspections of ships mooring in the port of Hodeida more flexible.
The Emirates, the other major player in the Arab coalition, says it will withdraw its troops entirely. He has already done so to a large extent, except on the island of Socotra. But what the southern separatist militias he protects can do is anyone's guess.
"It is the end of the war, but peace is still missing," warns a former Yemeni diplomat. The addiction to the euphoric qat, which absorbs a third of the crops and half of the income of the poorest, worsens the food crisis. With a virtue: "It makes you starve."
