Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine will receive a resounding response from the Atlantic Alliance, its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, reiterated today in statements to the press minutes before the meeting of defense ministers that today starts in Brussels. "We are aware of the speculation about the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and we have made it clear to them that this would have severe consequences against Russia."
Despite the war in Ukraine and despite Russia's warnings that it may resort to its nuclear arsenal – or precisely because of that – NATO announced yesterday that it has decided to go ahead with the nuclear deterrence military exercises it plans to hold next week somewhere in Europe and that he planned already last year, before the invasion.
“If we suddenly canceled them, we would be sending the wrong signal” to Moscow, argued the secretary general of the Alliance, who suggested that it could cause “misunderstandings” and be interpreted as doubts about the determination of the military organization, which would increase the risk of a climb. "This is the time to stand firm and make it clear that NATO is there to protect and defend all allies." NATO, he added, Stoltenberg has strengthened his deterrence capacity to send a clear message to Moscow: "We are here to defend all allies." The Kremlin today described this information as "confirmation" that NATO, despite denying its direct involvement, is fighting in Ukraine.
The Atlantic Alliance considers Putin's veiled threats "dangerous and irresponsible". Although the Russian president knows that “Russia knows that a nuclear war can never be won and can never be waged”, his warnings are taken very seriously. The intelligence services of the allied countries – the United States, mainly – keep Russian nuclear forces under surveillance, but for the moment “no change” has been seen in the Russian positions. "But we remain vigilant," Stoltenberg said at the press conference ahead of the meeting of allied defense ministers that begins today in Brussels.
The military organization has not revealed in which country or countries in Europe these types of exercises will be held, but allied sources have explained that they will be held more than a thousand kilometers from Russia and will include the participation of 14 countries. Known in Allied jargon as Steadfast Noon, they have already been held in 2019 and 2021. They usually last for a week and involve the mobilization of air forces, such as planes capable of carrying nuclear warheads, but not bombs. Last year, the exercise took place in Italy, one of the countries where the United States stores this type of weapon. Its objective, according to NATO, “to maintain the safe and effective nuclear deterrent capacity” of the allied countries.
The meeting of defense ministers comes at a critical moment in the war in Ukraine. With the onset of winter, when the conflict is expected to slow down, Kyiv's forces continue to regain ground, a turnaround to which Moscow has responded by resorting to missile strikes on civilian targets in cities and power plants across the country. “It is Ukraine that has the momentum, and continues to make significant progress” while Russia resorts to “horrible and indiscriminate attacks against civilians and critical infrastructure”, an attitude that shows “weakness”. “Putin is failing in Ukraine, the war “is not going as expected”, Stoltenberg maintains.
The allies will reaffirm this week their support for Ukraine so that it can exercise its right to self-defense, but they will also address a problem that becomes more pressing the longer the war goes on: the replenishment of arsenals, to have national defenses ready and to be able to supply arms to Kyiv. The ministers will hold a meeting and a working dinner with their Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksii Reznikov, with whom they will discuss what kind of weapons their army needs.
The Alliance will also discuss how to increase surveillance of its critical infrastructure. After the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, "we have doubled our presence in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with more than 30 ships and submarine capabilities," Stoltenberg revealed to the press. NATO, Stoltenberg recalled, already decided a few years ago that a cyber or hybrid attack can activate Article V of the treaty on mutual defense and "will take the necessary measures" if necessary. “NATO is prepared for any threat, any attack, including nuclear. This was already important before the invasion of Ukraine and has become even more important afterwards”.
