To understand how urgently Israelis and Palestinians need peace, consider what would happen to them in a state of perpetual war. In the face of an immensely superior Israeli army, the Palestinians' most powerful weapon would remain the death and suffering of their own people. And Israel would also have a horrible fate if it wants to be a flourishing and modern democracy. If Israel is willing to permanently depend on her army to subdue the Palestinians, she will become a pariah state whose existence is based on apartheid. Israelis who carried out daily acts of oppression punctuated by occasional rounds of murder would corrupt themselves. For these two peoples locked in a violent embrace, the only salvation is peace.
Now, how to achieve it? Israelis remain shocked by the rapes and murders of October 7; Palestinians watch as the mutilated bodies of children and women pile up in Gaza. In the midst of such carnage, third-party requests for peace seem naive. Furthermore, both sides are overcome by boredom to the point of considering the endless talks as a mechanism to delay peace, not to forge it. Negotiators have in the past discussed almost every land swap and security deal imaginable. All of that has already failed.
However, something has changed after October 7: the Israeli strategy of marginalizing Palestinians and their dreams has been broken. Both sides have the opportunity to find new leaders with a new vision. And, after years of neglect, perhaps third parties can now help; and, crucially, among them, a group of Arab countries. They must not fall into the trap of thinking that peace requires painstakingly re-agreeing on all the minutiae of an agreement. Success depends on both parties wanting peace and (much more difficult) believing in it.
For the struggle to have any meaning, it must lead to peace, which means that the two peoples can live side by side. Israel's bombings have killed more than 16,000 Palestinians, including Hamas fighters. Although there are Palestinians who have been radicalized as a result of this and the daily humiliations of the occupation, there are many who detest Hamas and its unwinnable wars and would be willing to coexist with Israel if they could prosper. They are people who will seek peace, as long as armed men do not stand in their way. Israel also needs a new strategy. The old woman has not fulfilled the basic promise of the State to create a safe land for the Jews; 1,400 people have been killed or kidnapped by Hamas and hundreds of thousands more have been evacuated.
Peace also requires new leaders, because the current ones are discredited. In Israel, Beniamin Netanyahu is an obstacle to authentic reconciliation; The sooner you leave, the better. It would be helpful if the United States stated that it awaits Israel's announcement of an upcoming election. Polls indicate that Netanhayu will be replaced by Benny Gantz, a former general who knows very well the price of war. Gantz has not supported the creation of a Palestinian state, but he has not ruled it out either.
New political leadership is also needed on the Palestinian side. Hamas is a declared enemy of peace: as long as it runs Gaza, Palestinian promises to achieve it will not be credible. In the West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, who heads the Palestinian Authority, is corrupt, ossified and lacks any democratic legitimacy. On the rubble of war, Gaza will need time to rebuild itself and re-establish some kind of stable administration. Moderate Arab countries should sponsor a transitional Palestinian leadership in the West Bank and Gaza that can begin to build trust among their own people and, vitally, with the Israelis as a preliminary step to holding elections. By governing both Gaza and the West Bank, such a leadership would become a more credible partner for peace.
That brings us to the process. The Oslo accords, signed in 1993 with a suspicious handshake on the White House lawn, left the most difficult details for last. Every inch of progress had to be extracted from both sides. This undermined the belief in the possibility of success.
A new process must move quickly. Both parties will have to face their respective extremists, interested in sabotaging coexistence. The Palestinian Authority must end armed groups, dismantle terrorist cells and tackle corruption. Boosting the economy requires numerous agreements with Israel on trade, public services and work permits. Palestinians need to know that they gain freedoms and rights.
Land swaps can wait, but Israel must deal with settlements that extend too far into the West Bank to be part of Israel. She must start monitoring them and prevent them from continuing to expand. It must be made clear that the approximately 100,000 settlers living there will have to relocate or submit to Palestinian rule.
This is too difficult for Israelis and Palestinians to do alone, so the outside world needs to get involved. In Oslo, the sponsor was the United States, but it had difficulty putting pressure on Israel, which is capable of garnering formidable support in Congress.
This time, the Arab world must play a decisive role. Under the Abraham Accords, negotiated during the Trump administration, several countries recognized Israel. These agreements were part of a vision of the Middle East that was based more on trade and prosperity than on ideology. Money from those countries will be needed to rebuild Gaza. Its soldiers can help provide security when Israel leaves the Strip, a withdrawal that should occur as soon as possible. If everyone collaborates, they can deprive Hamas of money and shelter, and direct the funds to reconstruction. His influence can provide diplomatic cover to a transitional Palestinian leader while he establishes himself and his administration.
The key is for the United States and Saudi Arabia to put pressure on Israel and the Palestinians soon. The Palestinian Authority maintains that peace could be launched if the United States and the European Union sent Israel the signal to recognize a Palestinian state in advance; This is an idea supported by Spain, which holds the presidency of the European Union. The United States must fulfill its promise to open a diplomatic mission for Palestinians in Jerusalem. Still, full recognition of Palestine by the West and of Israel by Saudi Arabia must be seen as a future reward, an incentive for progress.
Time is short. Israel's anti-Palestinian right will not weaken. Once the current government falls, the next one will only have a single mandate to revive Israelis' faith in the possibility of peace. In the Palestinian Authority, the new leader will face enemies who have grown fat under the current rotten system. Whatever remains of Hamas will try to derail peace, as will Iran and its proxies, who thrive on chaos and fighting. The Biden administration may be willing to put pressure on Israel; That might not be the case in a Trump-led administration. So that permanent war does not ruin the two peoples, Israelis, Palestinians and all those who hold them dear must seize the moment.
-----------------------------
© 2023 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved
Translation: Juan Gabriel López Guix
