China is not Russia, it does not scare the majority of Europeans that much, according to the latest survey by the European Center for Foreign Relations (CERE), a think tank based in Brussels, and which La Vanguardia publishes exclusively with Le Monde , The Guardian , La Stampa and the Süddeutsche Zeitung, its partners in the Europa Group.
The majority of those surveyed believe that Europe should maintain a good commercial relationship with China, without taking political sides with the United States in the struggle that both powers maintain over Taiwan and global supremacy in the 21st century.
The CERE asked in April in eleven European countries what strategic decisions the EU should take on China, Russia and the United States.
Regarding China, the majority opinion is that Europe should follow its own path, without aligning itself with the United States, nor in defending Taiwan against a hypothetical Chinese invasion. This position of neutrality is based on the conviction that the economic relationship is a priority and should be kept out of the Xi Jinping regime's support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The red line would be the supply of weapons to Russia to fight in the Ukraine. If Beijing passes it, the majority of Europeans would support the application of economic and political sanctions.
China, in any case, is seen more as a “necessary partner” and not so much as a “systemic rival”.
The president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, thinks that Europe has to reduce dependence on China. She fears that if she doesn't, she will end up subjected to interests that are not her own. She claims the risk is too high.
Against this firm position is the more conciliatory position of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. They believe that Europe is interested in a very close commercial relationship with China. They believe that it is fine to repatriate the production of certain strategic products, but that, ultimately, it is more beneficial for China to continue to be a large factory for many products that Europeans consume and for many European companies that do business there.
The majority of Europeans think the same, except, precisely, in France and Germany. This lack of harmony between public opinion and its rulers demonstrates the difficulties that Macron and Scholz executives are going through.
Europeans are not concerned about economic cooperation with China. Nor are they concerned about their presence on the continent, as long as they do not take control of infrastructure or the media.
The Europeans, as their preferred neutrality in the China-US standoff shows, want the EU to have more weight on the international chessboard.
Three quarters of those surveyed are happy with the renewed transatlantic cooperation, but deep down they do not believe that it is sustainable in the long term. The US interest has been in Asia for years, in containing China, and not in Europe. That was the case with Obama and also with Trump, and it would have been with Biden had there not been a war in Ukraine.
Having a policy towards China must also be accompanied by its own security strategy. Europeans appreciate the US leadership in defending Ukraine, but believe that Europe should be able to defend itself against the Kremlin threat.
Europeans' opinion of Russia worsens as the war in Ukraine drags on. Even when peace comes, most believe that the EU should not establish a full relationship with Russia, especially while Putin remains in power. This majority, however, is not uniform. It is very pronounced in Poland, for example, but very little in Bulgaria.
In countries like Italy and Germany, more than 20% of the population wants to restore full relations as soon as there is peace. The unity shown by the Twenty-seven in the defense of Ukraine is broken when the post-war scenario is considered.
Europeans like their diplomacy to be based on universal values such as justice and democracy, as well as respect for human rights and the environment. They maintain the instinct for cooperation that characterizes the EU, even if the world is less and less cooperative. This will, as reflected in the survey, should guide European strategists in the face of the difficult decisions that lie ahead.
