July will be the warmest month on record on Earth, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and travel agencies already recommend trying to avoid tourist destinations where, at certain times, high temperatures make it inadvisable to book an excursion in full sun. This has been the case, for a long time, in Egypt, with three main centers, Cairo, Alexandria and Luxor, where summer is low season. The same is true in Tunisia. The problem is that those extreme conditions that are common in summer on the African continent are beginning to move to the other side of the Mediterranean. Greece, Italy, Croatia and also Spain are the countries most exposed to the consequences of climate change in tourism and, therefore, in their economy, according to the European Commission.
Santorini Island in the Aegean Sea. It's 9:00 p.m. Restaurants crowded with tourists. Suddenly, hundreds of mobile phones emit the same beep. It is an alert, in the form of a text message, sent by the authorities to the inhabitants and vacationers of the area where they are warned of temperatures of up to 46 degrees (in Spain this system known as ES-Alert has been operational since February and It is managed by the Ministry of the Interior). To the intense heat we must add this summer fires in Corfu and Rhodes that have forced the evacuation of more than 2,000 tourists. In the capital, Athens, the Acropolis has had to close due to the intense heat wave. Something similar happens in Rome. Or in Naples. The thermometer in southern Europe is skyrocketing and tourists have to flee destinations where cooling off is not so easy.
In Spain, the coastal areas or the islands hardly notice the intense heat. But in the interior it is already causing a reduction in the number of travelers. In Madrid, for example, in July and August 2022 there was a drop in visitors, mainly due to the intense weather in the capital. Something similar happens in Seville. Non-coastal cities suffer from high temperatures, points out Carlos Albella, general secretary of the Tourism Board. It is not that tourists stop traveling, but that they prefer to do it to other areas. "The problem - he adds - is that these extreme phenomena are becoming more common and keep visitors away."
The problem is already a reality. Moody's has raised the alert this week, pointing out in an ad hoc report on the consequences of increasingly frequent and intense heat waves for tourism in countries like Spain: "They can reduce the attractiveness of southern Europe as a long-term tourist destination or, at least, reduce demand in summer, which will have negative economic effects given the importance of the sector”. The Spanish economy, specifically, would be hit the hardest if the trend continues, the agency warns. “If global average temperatures increase by around 1.5°C, the European Commission estimates that debt ratios would be 4.5 percentage points higher in Spain by 2032, 2.6 percentage points higher in Greece and 2.2 percentage points higher in Italy, mainly as a result of the economic and fiscal costs of extreme weather events. In other words, it is not only that fewer tourists are going to travel to certain destinations, but also that being able to operate in those hot areas is going to entail additional costs. Notice to sailors for those from the south of the continent.
The countries of northern Europe are by no means immune to rising temperatures and drought. "Supply chains are also being affected because the water level in the main river transport routes is close to historical lows," Moody's notes. For example, on the Rhine River, where costs have increased and traffic has decreased, adds the provider of studies and risk analysis. Hydroelectric generation also plummets if the swamps and rivers have less water.
Tourism in southern Europe and, specifically, in Spain is experiencing a moment of impasse. Spanish businessmen assure that, for the moment, they are not noticing changing trends. In other words, tourists, essentially foreigners, continue to visit hot places in summer like Madrid, Seville or Granada. It is true that national tourists think twice about visiting an inland city in July or August. But what is beginning to increase is the growing concern of tourists about extreme weather. This is indicated by a survey published at the beginning of July by the European Travel Commission, which concludes that 8% of EU tourists express concern about possible extreme weather conditions when planning their vacations. It does not seem like a high percentage, but it is if compared to the fact that the war in Ukraine worries 12% of those surveyed.
Spain is a tourist destination that is based on price and customer satisfaction to compete with North African countries or other European destinations. Travelers value the national sun and beach, gastronomy, art... The problem is that climate change already influences these conclusions. This is the opinion of Mabrian, a company that uses a tourism intelligence platform to measure the effect of adverse weather conditions in a destination on visitor satisfaction during their stay. The conclusions are clear: "With tourists who have suffered a heat wave during their stay at the destination, we have noticed that they present a general and significant drop in the score on what they think of the experience and their overall perception of the trip", explains Carlos Cendra, partner and marketing director of the company. In this sense, Spain suffered a 10-point drop in the tourist perception index during the heat waves last summer. The same thing happened to Italy and Greece. The waves this summer have already caused tourist satisfaction in Spain to drop by up to 8 points, the highest drop at the moment. In contrast, the climate perception index found that tourists who visited the UK in the summer of 2022 had a better overall perception of the destination and their travel experience. Also the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland or Denmark, cooler destinations that increased their demand to the detriment of the Mediterranean. "Travellers looking for less crowded destinations and milder temperatures", conclude from the tourist association.
The big question that haunts the sector is: could tourists move away from countries affected by drought and high temperatures? Yes, the businessmen respond. It already happens, in fact, says Exceltur and the Tourism Board. Although 2023 is going to be a record year after the pandemic, we must think about the future, they point out. On the positive side, within the alarming situation, the private sector points out that the rise in temperatures is causing the seasonality of the high season, which now lasts for a greater number of weeks between spring and autumn.
Europe is facing "the new era of extreme weather, which is going to transform the economy," the Financial Times noted a few days ago. And Spain is no stranger to this change. The tourism sector in Spain is, therefore, at a crossroads to which it must adapt. According to Exceltur, tourism will close the year representing 12.9% of GDP. In the past year, 61% of the economic recovery was due to him. In other words, the climate is at stake, but also the main economic sector of the country.
