The drought gives no respite in Catalonia; It has accumulated 31 months, and has reached the maximum extension, duration and intensity recorded so far. To reverse this situation, 500 l/m2 would need to fall, which is equivalent to the sum of all the rainfall that occurs in the city of Barcelona in a normal year (when there is no drought). On the other hand, short and medium-term predictions indicate that a level of rainfall is not expected that would allow water to return to normal.
Catalonia is experiencing the most serious drought since 1916, the first year for which records are available. The magnitude of the precipitation deficits, the extent of the affected areas and the duration of the phenomenon mean that the accumulated severity index is higher than that of the 2005-2008 period.
"It is the toughest drought in terms of persistence and intensity, ever recorded in Catalonia and the worst of all is that we do not see any window of opportunity that can reverse the situation," stressed the director of the Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya (SMC), Sarai Sarroca. .
Under normal conditions, in a period of three years, about 1,900 mm (or liters per square meter) fall in Catalonia, but since 2020 only a little more than 1,400 mm have fallen. Therefore, the deficit is close to 500 mm. In this entire period it has rained, therefore, 27% less than normal.
But the situation is much more serious in the internal basins, where the rivers that supply the Barcelona and Girona region are located. Normally, in a region "when the deficit exceeds 20%, problems related to water supply already occur," says Sarroca.
The current accumulated rainfall deficit is specifically 466 mm (while the period 2005-2008 was 352 mm). This is equivalent to the average rain that falls in Barcelona over the course of a year. "It would be necessary for concentrated and urgent rain to reverse the situation," said Sarai Sarroca.
Another equivalence: those 500 mm are approximately the water necessary to flood all of Catalonia half a meter high.
After the last major episode of precipitation (Storm Gloria, at the beginning of 2020), the accumulation of precipitation deficits began to be detected in the autumn of the same year and, starting in the summer of 2021, the drought intensifies, especially in the internal basins of Catalonia.
The deficits in these three years are being especially intense in the headwaters of the Segre (-516 mm), Muga (-862 mm) and Ter (-663 mm) rivers, where records have been broken compared to the last drought in 2005. -2008, while in Noguera Pallaresa (-314 mm) and Llobregat (-557 mm) it has not yet been surpassed but it is very close.
"Since the autumn of 2020, the Pla de Lleida, the golf of Roses, the Garraf and Collserola have not fallen even 20 liters, and that is very little rain in three years," he adds.
In the previous drought, the most affected areas were those of the Ponent, while now they are the internal basins, the areas that are not the Ebro basin. "This is an important difference, because it affects the area where there are more inhabitants," highlights Sarroca. .
In a period of lack of rain that has already lasted 36 months. "Since 2016, this drought has had the largest territorial extension; never before has a dry episode been recorded in Catalonia that affected more than 50% of the Catalan territory."
"During recent years, droughts have been more intense, more persistent and more frequent," he adds.
Currently, "no scenario is foreseen that can reverse the current drought situation," stated the director of the SMC.
Meanwhile, short- and medium-term rainfall maps do not foresee generous episodes of rain. Until the end of the year there will be little rain.
After a San Martín summer in which record temperatures have been recorded, especially in Girona, next week and the last week of the month there will be rain, but it is not expected that these will be significant"; and in any case they will not serve to modify the situation , "although any liter will be welcome."
The same prediction is made in the medium term (months of November, December and January), since there may be episodes in which the Atlantic fronts cross the Peninsula and arrive very weakened, although it cannot be ruled out that they become active when they reach the Mediterranean.
Sarroca has highlighted that, as a result of the climate crisis, Catalonia is already "in episodes of chronic droughts", which does not mean that they cannot end in a short space of time, because another "exceptional" storm such as Gloria cannot be ruled out. , accompanied by heavy rainfall.
In any case, although there may be storms with intense rainfall that "reverse or stop the blow of this record drought, it is likely that in the coming years there will be more episodes, on a continuous basis."
